Monday, July 06, 2015

Back To The Future

ColumbusGuy just made a prediction about Greece.  At the beginning of the year I made my annual predictions.  Now that it's mid-year I think I'll repost them--without comment--so we can see how things are going so far:

Domestic Politics:

President Obama will veto more legislation than he did in his first six years in office.

Congress will not pass significant immigration reform.

The Justice Department will not back down on demanding lower due process requirements in sexual assault cases on campus.

No new Supreme Court Justice will be seated.

The Supreme Court will declare the Federal government may subsidize any health care exchange no matter what its source.

Elizabeth Warren will decide to run.  (I should add eight years ago I suggested Barack Obama run as he'd never have a better chance.  Same for Warren. Not that she's the same candidate that Obama was--heck, Obama isn't the same candidate Obama was--but with the changes in demographics, maybe McGovern can win this time around.)

At the end of the year there'll be no clear, odds-on frontrunner among the GOP for 2016.

International Politics:

ISIS will be weaker at the end of the year.

Iran will not announce they have an nuclear weapon.

Cuba will not have major reform, and will remain as poor as ever.

There will be a major terror attack in Europe.

The Economy:

The Dow will be over 18000 at the end of the year, but below 19000.

By year's end unemployment will be between 5% and 5.4%

Gas prices will continue to average under three dollars a gallon.


Alabama will win the BCS bowl.

The Detroit Tigers will not take their division.

The Michigan Wolverines will do better in 2015 than 2014 (they better).

A team that finished the season 12-4 will win the Super Bowl (a good bet, but hardly guaranteed).

Popular Culture:

After a couple years of no one caring, people will say a sad farewell to Mad Men and it will once again be nominated for a Best Drama Emmy.  (A brave guess, since once you're out that's usually it.)

On season five of Game Of Thrones, The Hound will not be dead (though we may not find out either way).  We will not find out this season who Jon Snow's real parents are.  Stannis Baratheon will not, even temporarily, sit on the Iron Throne.  At least two Westerners will meet for the first time in the East.

Birdman will receive the most above-the-line Oscar nominations.  Patricia Arquette will be Best Supporting Actress, J.K. Simmons will be Best Supporting Actor, Julianne Moore will be Best Actress (toughest category to call) and Michael Keaton will win for Best Actor.

PS  In the comments section, Denver Guy posted his predictions, including stuff about Greece (that he pretended was bold).  I prefer what he has to say about Jurassic World:


Sad to note that LG already has one correct prediction for 2015 (French terrorist attack). Here go mine for the rest of the year - mostly based on what's on my mind these days:


Though LA Guy thinks Obamacare could still be dismantled, I'm afraid even the King v. Burwell case couldn't do it. I'm going to predict that the S.Ct. will hold 5/4 that the text means what it says, but that will only give the Republicans an opening to force President Obama to accept significant changes to the law in exchange for fixing the typos. Too much has been invested for the Republicans to repeal the whole thing. They will gut the mandate and hope the program withers on the vine (it will become an expensive gov't program that does a fairly poor job at getting insurance to the needy and nobody else).

Of perhaps greater importance for free speech and right to work advocates, I predict a 7-2 victory for Abercrombie & Fitch against the EEOC, in the case where they wouldn't employ a Muslim woman in their fancy shmancy store because she insisted on wearing a head scarf. This seems obvious to me (employers have a right to control their own image, especially in retail), so maybe it will be unanimous in support of the 10th Circuit ruling.


Congress will pass a Keystone Pipeline bill, and the President will veto it, and the House will have the votes to overturn, but Elizabeth Warren will lead a massive push to prevent the Senate from overturning the veto, laying the groundwork for her run for President.

By the end of 2015, it will be clear that Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, John Kasich and Marco Rubio are the front runners for the Republican nomination, though none will dominate. I'm predicting that Huckabee and Romney will decline to run and Ted Cruz will not get much traction.

Harry Reid will announce his retirement before the end of the year, to make room for a new face in NV.


My bold prediction - the leftist party will take power in Greece, and by the end of the year, Greece will be in the process of leaving the EU.

Easy prediction - with 2 convictions in it's first 12 years of existence, I predict there will be no International Criminal Court convictions at the Hague in 2015.

Venezuela President Maduro will either have imposed a dictatorship with marshall law, or he will be out as President by year end.

Russia will not annex eastern Ukraine, but an autonomous State will be created, nominally under the control of Ukraine.


The Fed Funds Rate will be increased to .5% by year end.


Bronco's will get on the wrong bus and miss playing the Superbowl. Seriously, if I don't predict them to win the Superbowl, how stupid will I feel if they do?

And the Ravens will defeat the Patriots this weekend!

The Colorado Rockies will not win their division - Dodgers will repeat as NL West Division winners.


Star Wars VII will be the biggest blockbuster of 2015, breaking the $1B mark.

Jurassic World will disappoint at the box office (though I'm looking forward to it).

Walking Dead will get a Season 7 from AMC. With such a turnover in cast, they don't have to worry about actors getting tired of their roles, or demanding too much money to continue.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maduro will impose "marshall" law? Does that mean he's the new sheriff in town?

12:12 AM, July 06, 2015  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

Did I say Jurassic World would disappoint and Star Wars VII will be the summer blockbuster. Silly me, I switched the two names.

Marshall Law - Martial Law - it sounded right when I said it.

7:42 AM, July 06, 2015  

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