Thursday, May 05, 2016


Well, our governor certainly intrigues me. I'm shocked that he has the sense to get out of the race now. The logic of his being in is no different today than it's ever been.

Cruz dropping did not surprise me, though it hurt.

Had Kasich not been in, it seems obvious Cruz would have won. He would have taken many of the early races after Rubio dropped, and the winner's momentum would have been his.

So perhaps that was Kasich's primary mission, to stop that from happening. As Boehner made clear. plenty of Republican leaders can't believe Trump, but Cruz, they hate.

Now, would Cruz have beaten Hillary? LAGuy thinks not, and he might be right. (Or maybe LAGuy thought Cruz wasn't going to stay in the early primaries, I don't know which.) The media would have been dead set against him, and the Republican Party too (well, the establishment apparatus). Ohio had a similar situation in 2006, when Ken Blackwell pulled a Cruz and kicked the pants of the establishment--and the establishment wholly abandoned him, giving us a small flush of Democrats (and giving Richard Cordray his long sought after first statewide office, first treasurer then attorney general when the Democrat Attorney General who ran against a "culture of corruption" was forced to resign due to corruption). Quite a historical error, since it would have been nice to have a prominent conservative black Republican as governor. (Though I don't think anyone involved had the chops to carry out the whole thing.)

I do expect Trump to beat Hillary. No one likes her, not even her own voters. I suppose LAGuy's thinking is the Democrats have essentially a permanent lock on the electoral college, and that's a good thought. I don't quite buy it, but it's certainly the trend, just as the loss of the supreme court was inevitable. What Trump will do if he does win, God only knows.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Cruz and Trump are each worse than the other so I'm not sure many of the few Kasich voters would have opted for either. Maybe this is a big set up for a 3d party run by K or someone else. Who knows - hard to figure. A three way might help Trump.

CG on no one liking Hillary reminds me of that Pauline Kael line in 1968 about nobody liking Nixon.

6:41 AM, May 05, 2016  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

I think Trump is a jump ball that will be very hard to predict. And polls may be very off this round, with people lying to live pollsters, messing with robo-polls, etc. I think Trump has a real shot at winning Ohio and Florida, not to mention PA and WI. But it depends on how he runs his campaign. People are not going to be talking about what names he called Megan Kelly come October. He has a chance to refine his positions on Mexicans and women sufficiently to avoid a massive backlash (or assasination attempt). On the other hand, if Black Lives Matter, and other organizations begin violent demonstrations and persecution of his rallies, the average voting bystander may feel pushed into Trump's camp.

And then there are a dozen wild cards, from a domestic terrorist attack, to a recession, to disclosure of significant skeletons in either candidate's closets. My plan is to vote for Trump unless he is so far behind in CO by November that I can with good conscience vote for the Libertarian (Johnson?) for the first time in my life.

2:43 PM, May 05, 2016  

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