Monday, November 07, 2016


With one more day before the end of the election period (I used to call tomorrow election day, but really it's just the endpoint of weeks of voting), it looks like Hillary Clinton will take it.  To be fair, Trump is doing better than I expected, and I'd give him somewhere between a 10% to 20% chance of winning.

The argument for Clinton is pretty easy to make--she's ahead in the polls.  You don't really need any more than that.  Add to that the fact she presumably has a far better get-out-the-vote machine and she becomes the clear favorite.

The case for Trump is a lot harder to make.  First, you could claim that general polls--which  in any case don't show an overwhelming lead for Clinton--don't count.  He cedes so many electoral votes to her due to states like California and New York that she can win the popular vote and still not win the electoral vote.  State polls show that all Trump needs to do is win in places where he's already ahead, and then flip one or two more states where it's close, especially Florida or Pennsylvania.  And with state polls being volatile, that could certainly happen.

Furthermore, there's still a fair amount of undecided voters who may turn to Trump, who's finishing strong, while Hillary is still dealing with scandals.

Also, there's reason to believe Trump is undercounted in the polls, which are only based on models, after all.  He brings new people to the GOP (while the old Republicans voters have been coming around).  Groups whose vote was depressed in the past will show up, while certain Democrat voters, especially African-Americans, just won't come out for Clinton like they did for Obama.

Add it all up, and Trump takes it.  Anyway, that's what some Trump people are claiming.  I don't think I buy it.  But we'll find out soon enough.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I figure it at close to 2/3ds of the votes to be cast in this election will be cast tomorrow, so I think we can still call it election day for a while.

My bet is that it will be an early night and that if you want drama, rent a movie. I'll predict Hillary's numbers overall will be close to Obama's in 2012 but the state jigsaw puzzle will look different but she'll have well over 300 electoral votes.

I also think while there will be a few violent outbursts here and there (I'm thinking of the fistfight variety not armed conflict) which will get plenty of coverage, people will generally get fed up, go home and get on with their lives.

8:08 AM, November 07, 2016  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

My final prediction is Clinton 301, Trump 237. This is because I think Clinton will win Florida, Trump will win Nevada. My only path for Trump to win is he takes Florida and New Hampshire. So I'll know pretty early in the evening whether to stay up.

On the Senate side, I'm fairly upbeat. I see 51 Republican Senate seats to 49 Dem (including 2 Independents). This would be a remarkable outcome considering the predictions a year ago. It could even be 52 Republicans if both Ayotte in NH and Joe Heck in Nevada win (I'm figuring they'll split). Long shot for Todd Young in Indiana against the name, the legend, Evan Bayh. Burr and Blunt hold their southern states.

Rubio wins Florida because many Rubio supporters hate Trump so splitting the ticket is no problem. It will be a final pie in Trump's face because his camp argued that Rubio couldn't even win Florida if he were the nominee for President.

No violence, probably a lower turnout than either of the last two Presidential elections (at least percentage-wise).

8:49 AM, November 07, 2016  
Blogger LAGuy said...

I make no predictions about turnout, but I do think it'll be an early evening as well. If Trump loses Florida (and Pennsylvania) that's it.

I would prefer a close race just so neither candidates gets ideas (though I realize it doesn't matter--you can lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College by 2 votes, you're still President as much as if you took all the states).

9:34 AM, November 07, 2016  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speaking of predictions, the Washington Post homepage has a headline that reads, "Clinton has the electoral votes to win."

I love the use of the present tense and the lack of any uncertainty. That's what makes our media truly great.

12:06 PM, November 07, 2016  

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