Thursday, January 12, 2017

Another State Heard From

Denver Guy has just given us his predictions for this year, but left them in the film wrap-up comments.  Just in case we want to refer to them later, I figured I'd post them here to make it easy for everyone.  (He predicts the Bushes will leave the public sphere.  Hasn't that already happened?)

SUPREME COURT

Lee v. Tam - Kennedy will lead a majority (6-2 or 5-3) striking down the Patent/Trademark Office decision to bar registration of the name "Slants" by an Asian American band on grounds it is a disparaging term. This may pave the way for the Wash. Redskins winning challenge to their disparaging trademark.

LA County v. Mendez - 5/4 the Court will overturn 9th Cir. ruling that police who use excessive force lose their immunity from personal prosecution.

And with Trump promising a nomination within 2 weeks, here's my bold prediction for the Scalia replacement: Don Willett, TX S.Ct. Trump's choice will be based on personal interviews, and Willett is known as "the tweeting judge." He doesn't take things so seriously.

Second choice, Diane Sykes, 7th Cir., as a thank-you to Wisconsin (she'll be first choice if Ginsburg leaves in next few years). Thomas Lee, U. Of Chicago Law grad is on the list, but doesn't have sufficient track record to satisfy Senate Republicans (assuming Trump cares about that).

DOMESTIC POLITICS

Congress will pass no significant legislation to combat Climate Change.

The Clintons will not leave the public sphere, continuing to be the toast of Hollywood, DC and NY functions. The Bushes will leave the public sphere.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Andrea Merkel will lose or withdraw from Germany's election.

Marine Le Pen will not win the French election.

The US embassy in Israel will move to Jerusalem.

Trump will not reinstate sanctions on Cuba (it's not good for business). The left will be in a quandary trying to decide whether to be happy that communist Cuba is open to visits, or angry that Trump's company will try and build a hotel there.

ECONOMY

GDP in 2017 will exceed 3% growth.

And I'll counter LA Guy, the DOW will remain below 20,000 by year end, due to Trump policies damaging the stock of many blue chips. This is what populists do - create scapegoats.

ENTERTAINMENT

Cubs will not repeat in the World Series (one win a century is enough to keep the fan base).

The Apprentice, with Arnold as host, will be canceled (or Arnold will be fired).

The Twin Peaks revival on Showtime will be a winner (or at least renewed for a second season).

The Star Trek revival on CBS pay channel will fail (and perhaps the whole channel with it).

Guardians of Galaxy II will be the highest grossing picture of the year. (No real insight here, just don't like LA Guy's Star Wars pick, though he is probably right).

Happy Trump Year!

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