Sunday, January 01, 2017

Predictions For 2017

Domestic Politics:

(A general comment first--Trump has no track record, which makes the crystal ball even cloudier than usual.)

The Republicans will repeal Obamacare, despite ferocious opposition from the Democrats. However, they will use half measures, not really pleasing anyone.

Trump's first nominee to the Supreme Court will please conservatives and will be confirmed.  A contingent prediction--if the Dems try to filibuster, the Repubs will use the nuclear option.

There will be no hearings for another Supreme Court nominee in 2017.

Strong rifts will appear among the Republicans--and both Trumpians and establishment GOP will complain about certain things the Trump administration does.

Trump will have trouble getting the entire amount he wants for infrastructure.

Trump will start building The Wall, but construction will go slowly.

The Keystone Pipeline construction will continue apace.

Trump will attempt to cut off money to sanctuary cities.

Former President Obama will speak regularly in public about the direction of the country.

There will be a fair amount of civil unrest in the U.S.


International Politics:

Cuba will remain solidly communist.

The U.S. will seriously consider pulling out of the UN.

Trump will have trouble renegotiating trade treaties.

There will be more than one major terrorist attack.

The EU will be on the verge of falling apart.


The Economy:

By the end of the year, the Dow will be above 20000.

By the end of the year, unemployment will be over 5%.

Gas prices will not be significantly higher than they are now (which is a bit over 2 bucks a gallon).


Sports:

The BCS Bowl will be a repeat, with Alabama defeating Clemson.

The Patriots will win a hard-fought Super Bowl.  (My team, the Lions, will not get past the first playoff round.)

The Wolverines will take the Big Ten Conference.


Popular Culture:

Movies:  The Great Wall will disappoint. The Fate Of The Furious will not be as big as Furious 7Wonder Woman won't come close to Batman V. Superman numbers.  Dunkirk will be a fiscal disappointment, as will Blade RunnerStar Wars: Episode VIII will be the highest-grossing picture of the year (including its 2018 receipts), but it won't surpass The Force Awakens.

TV: Game Of Thrones:  Season seven (with only seven episodes) will have Arya reunite with at least one sibling.  Jon Snow will not find out his real parents.  The Hound will either fight his brother or meet Arya (or both).  Dorne will support Dany.  Dany will meet Davos, or Brienne, or both.  Ser Jorah will see Khaleesi again. Samwell will become a maester. White Walkers will broach the Wall.  Littlefinger will not die.  Tyrion will not meet Cersei.  We haven't heard the last of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

The Walking Dead:  In the rest of season seven, Negan will die, Rick, Carl, Daryl, Carol, Morgan and Michonne will not.

Better Call Saul:  Jimmy will finally become Saul.  Mike will start working for Gus. 

Oscars: Some tricky choices here.  Best Picture will come down to La La Land and Manchester By The Sea, with the former winning.  Best Director: Damien Chazelle.  Best Actor: Casey Affleck (though his personal scandals might bring him down).  Best Actress:  Very cloudy here--especially with the Adams/Huppert/Portman/Stone quartet.  I'll go with Portman, though I may change my mind later.  Best Supporting Actor:  Mahershala Ali (though it won't be fair if Dev Patel is nominated, since he's the lead in the second half of the film).  Supporting Actress:  Michelle Williams or Viola Davis.  It's Davis's turn, but Williams had the more memorable crying scene. "City Of Stars" will take Best Song.

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