Court Pool
A lot of people, left and right, have been saying for a while that President Trump may get to replace 3 or 4 Supreme Court justices in his first term. Supposedly, this knowledge will affect our vote one way or another in November.
But will Trump get more picks before 2020, as everyone is either fearing or hoping? No one can say for sure, but my guess is no. By chance* (and this has no bearing on the future, of course), every President since George W. Bush has gotten two picks, and Trump has already hit his quota.
On the court at present is Roberts, Thomas, Ginsburg, Breyer, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. The oldest conservative, Thomas, doesn't have any plans to leave (as far as I know) and, at 70, is still in good health (as far as I know). The other conservatives can be expected to stick around, unless something happens.
As for the four liberals, there are stories about health problems, but I don't think any of them would voluntarily leave as long as Trump is in office. (Though imagine if Trump got to replace one. It would make the Kavanaugh hearing look like child's play.)
So while the courts should be a factor in how you vote, I wouldn't count on any major changes in the next two years.
*Though perhaps the resignation of Kennedy wasn't entirely by chance.
posted by LAGuy @ 9:30 AM
5 Comments:
Who's the hot chick? Does she put out?
As in the days of old, when the Guys communicated by email--Florida 2000, anyone?--I have a group of friends that enjoys beating each other over the head with the unreason of the other side.
To those friends, I commented frequently that I was convinced Trump was a Clinton plant. When a friend and I were watching one of the debates and Trump said, "That wall just got 10 feet higher," I let my head bounce off the table at the bar we were sitting in.
When it came down to it, I said all I wanted was for Trump to appoint conservatives to the court. And when he soon enough got Gorsuch, my fear was Gorsuch would turn out to be weak tea.
But as it seems, Gorsuch is the real deal.
Now I'm among those who thinks Kavanaugh is weak tea, but I'm more hopeful that I'm wrong. At the least (I hope), he will be important in setting aside much that is pernicious in admin law. (Are you there, Cass?)
Regardless, Trump has met my minimum threshold, boy howdy.
And of course he's done so much more.
Though I am not alone, I have been wrong, wrong and wrong again about Trump. But almost always it is because he is doing far better than I hoped, in every way. It's hard to list all his good accomplishments because there are so many.
Will it last? One hopes.
In any case, there is no end of reasons to vote Republican this election. Courts is sufficient, but the basket overflows.
SWMBCg, etc.
SWMBCg, one of the most interesting analyses I heard during the Kavanaugh hearings was that even after Ford came forward, Susan Collins was desparately searching for a justification to vote for Kavanaugh, because she believed that Kavanaugh would uphold Roe v Wade, but if he lost Trump would have to replace him with Amy Coney Barrett, who would vote to overturn it.
(By the way, whenever I see your signature, I instinctively read it as "single white male [unknown b-word] Columbus Guy". Yet I thought that Ann Arbor Guy a.k.a. B.K. was the other Guy from those ancient emails....)
If you're wondering, it goes back a long way, and, if I recall, stands for "Someone Who Might Be Columbusguy."
Now if I could just remember what the etc. was for. Mercifully, I think it was used only once (or perhaps twice).
Single White Male Bowler--ColumbusGuy!
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