Big Night

Tonight is night Hollywood waits for all year 'round: the Oscars.  The following are the nominees in the big categories with my picks and predictions.  A lot of difficult calls.  PS  Now that the show is over, I will put a + by the winner.

Best Picture:

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book” +
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

It's rare a foreign language film is nominated, much less wins this Oscar, but I think this is the year for Roma (partly due to weak competition).  I'd vote for Roma, though I wouldn't mind seeing Green Book take it.  The tricky thing about this category is, with eight nominees, it's hard to figure how the vote will split.
 

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” +
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

I guess I'd choose Viggo Mortensen.  Christian Bale did a great impression, but was it much more than that?  The same goes for Malek, though he was memorable enough that he just might take it.

 

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” +
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

It appears to be Glenn Close's turn to win.  Too bad, since I think she's done better.  I guess I'd vote for Aparicio, though Colman was pretty good.

 

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” +
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

The biggest thing preventing Ali from being a mortal lock is he won this award two years ago, but the Academy is not that sentimental, so I think he'll win again. If I were voting, it'd be an easy win for Grant. (Many categories have people who shouldn't be there, but Elliott and Rockwell are being nominated for characters that stood out for being especially pointless.)
 

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” +
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Amy Adams, who's been nominated without winning almost as many times as Glenn Close, may have a chance for that reason.  Either Stone or Weisz might have won if the other hadn't been nominated.  It's hard to judge Tavira, acting in a different language.  I'd say King is the slight favorite.  I'd probably go for Stone.
 

Director:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” +
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Three foreign directors.  Unusual.  If Roma is the best picture, I'd expect Cuaron to be the best director.  He won a few years ago for Gravity, but this film is quite different.  I'd vote for him.
 

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman +

Hard to pick a winner.  None of these choices really stand out.  Isle Of Dogs is the most different.  I think Spider-man has a slight edge.  I guess I'd vote for Isle Of Dogs, shrugging my shoulders.

 

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee +
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

I'm not sure if any of these should have been nominated.  I might vote for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, which was hit and miss, but had some of the most lively dialogue of the year.  Could You Ever Forgive Me? wasn't bad, and I wouldn't mind if it won.  The others shouldn't win, but it's hard to discount BlacKkKlansman.

 

Original Screenplay:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly +
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Once again, I guess Roma will take it.  And probably should, though perhaps Green Book could sneak in, since it's in English so the voters could understand the dialogue.

 

Best Documentary Feature:

“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi +
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Hard to judge this category, since I've only seen two of them (and other docs that were big hits didn't get nominated).  I'd choose Free Solo, but if the Academy is feeling political, perhaps they'll go for RBG.

 

Best Foreign Language Film:

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico) +
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

If Roma is the only one here worthy of being nominated for Best Picture, how could it not win in this category?  I should add the quality in this category is higher than the Best Picture nominees.