A Game Of Numbers

It's Bill James' 70th birthday!  He's a guy who dug deep into baseball statistics, or sabermetrics as he called it--named from the Society For America Baseball Research founded in 1971, of which he was a member.

Stats are a big deal in any team sport, but nowhere are they more prominent than in baseball.  Even the most basic fans follow batting average, home runs, RBIs, ERA, wins versus losses, shutouts, strikeouts, errors, etc. But if you really want to get into it, there are all sorts of complex, special statistics out there--often invented by sabermetricians.

And that's what so great about James and his ilk.  Sure, baseball, like football, basketball, etc., is played by athletes, but the number guys add an extra dimension to it all.  And not just by supplying the stats--their analysis can make you look at the sport differently.

Sure, all the guys who played and worked in pro sports had a feel for it, and no doubt laughed when nerds with computers started to analyze the game.  But the truth was for too long, people believed things because it felt right, or because legend had it that way.  James said let's delve deep and see if your beliefs hold up.

For instance, everyone used to look at batting average.  A useful approximation, but isn't how often a player gets on base more important--and the batting average doesn't include walks and being hit by a pitch.  And then there's slugging average, which takes into account not just the number of hits, but what sort of hits they are.  James did the same analysis for pitchers, as well.

And sabermetrics let's you look at certain plays.  When is a good time to bunt?  When is a good time to try to steal a base?  Is it ever a good idea to intentionally walk someone?  Or there's the lineup.  Traditionally, the best hitters are put up early, but who should go first?  Should you wait till the third and fourth batter to put up the power hitters, or used them even earlier?

And this new research had an effect.  It's changed how teams value players and how they use them.  There will always be uncertainty, but if you ignore the stats, in the long run, you will do worse.  So let's hear it for Bill James.  To some people, he took the game way to seriously.  But for millions, he looked at a great game and made it even more interesting.