Four More Fears

During the holidays I head some political talk.  More than I wanted, actually.  It was mostly diatribes against Donald Trump, which seemed superfluous since I can read the papers or watch TV any time I want.

Some celebrated his impeachment (and a few seemed to think it meant he would be leaving, or that he couldn't run again).  More often, they spoke of their fears if he were reelected.  More than once I heard the idea that a second term would be worse than a first.

While this is how people think in general--threats in the present are more serious than threats from the past--it doesn't make too much sense.  In 2016, Trump represented a threat for a number of reasons, but perhaps the greatest was that he was completely unproven.  He'd never held office, so who knew what would happen if he suddenly became the man in charge?

Well, now we know, so as much as some may think he's the worst president ever (and it is incredible how many worst presidents ever we've lived through in the past few decades), at least the uncertainty is gone.

I heard the argument that if Trump is reelected, it'll be even worse because then he'll be unstoppable. Without another election to worry about, it'll be Trump unbound.  Once again, this is questionable reasoning.  First, it seems unlikely that the Dems won't hold at least one chamber of Congress after 2020, so that'll rein in Trump somewhat.

More significant, this is an ahistorical view.  Presidents generally are most effective in their first term.  They come into office full of new ideas and with a new mandate.  If they manage a second term, they're more likely to be tired and relatively ineffective.  And, whatever else, second-termers are lame ducks.

And it's not as if Trump has so far been holding back.  So my point, which I probably should have said at the start, is simple.  Trump haters, take heart.  If there is a sequel, it shouldn't be any worse than the original.