By The Numbers

As I write this, the numbers from Iowa are still incomplete.  Nevertheless, the overall results are becoming clear.  Of course, we've got the ridiculous Iowa system which gives us four numbers--the first round, the second round, the state delegates and, finally, the delegates who'll attend the national convention.

One thing is clear--the top three in Iowa were Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren.  It would seem the biggest vote-getter is Sanders, while Buttigieg may have the most state delegates.  Meanwhile, Biden, who was the frontrunner in polls for a long time, just didn't impress.  He barely finished ahead of Klobuchar.

Yet, it's worth noting these are the five who can move forward, at least for now, from the Iowa fiasco.  I don't see how Yang or anyone below him can last much longer.  Okay, there are the rich guys trying to buy their way in--Steyer and Bloomberg.  They're not the first to try this strategy, but it hasn't worked yet.

The main question, seems to me, is where will the voters go when some of the Big Five start dropping out.  After New Hampshire and Nevada and South Carolina, if you're getting single digits in votes and the money is drying up, even if you don't quit the voters will quit you.

Which is why the second round of Iowa is fascinating.  Without a big enough percentage in the first round, your voters have to go to a candidate who is still viable.  This is how Buttigieg was able to get more delegates than Sanders.

So perhaps the way to look at it now is will the Dems go "moderate" or "far left."  Sanders and Warren are seen as on the left, while Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar (and Yang) are seen as, comparatively, moderate.  When (and if) enough people drop out, will the voters stay in these areas, or will they cross?

This is a tricky analysis.  Four years ago many thought Trump would lose, despite early wins, since he wasn't getting majorities.  If all the other voters were against him, they might move to a single anti-Trump candidate, but it sure didn't work out that way.

But if it's simply do the Dems want a Sanders type or a moderate, right now the numbers are close, but would seem to indicate a moderate can take it.  But maybe it'll matter who drops out and when.  If Warren drops out early, realizing it isn't her year, will that help Sanders, or are her voters too angry to do that?  And what if Biden gets enough encouragement in the next few primaries to keep going, while Buttigieg won't drop out either.  (And let's not forget that Buttigieg allegedly has trouble with the African-American vote, which may cause him big trouble before too soon.) And when Klobuchar drops out, who does that help?  Questions for another day...and that day comes in less than a week.