First Chance

As I write this it's past 3 am in Iowa and everyone is still waiting for the results.  The app needs to be checked, making this the worst launch since Obamacare.

Rumor has it that Sanders won, and Warren and Buttigieg are also in the top three.  If true it's not surprising that Sanders is on top, since he was big four years ago and you don't need a majority with so many viable candidates running. (You've also got the odd caucus system--isn't it time to get rid of it?)  Also, his message resonates with young voters, who tend to not have lot of money.

In any case, many are saying if longtime frontrunner (which means nothing until the voting starts) Biden finishes poorly, he's toast. But is that true?  First, of course, no matter how things turn out in Iowa, will the massive screw-up mute the effect? More important, is Iowa that a big a deal?  Sure, it's better to win Iowa than not, just like it's better to score the first touchdown in the Super Bowl.  But it's not decisive.

In fact, if I were living in New Hampshire, I might like to send Bernie a message. Though Sanders is from Vermont, so he may be a favorite son.  Okay, then, how about Nevada and South Carolina?  Maybe that's where the anti-Bernie voters will take a stand.  The trouble is will Sanders is guaranteed to get a decent chunk of the voters, so will the others find a candidate to coalesce behind?

Anyway, it's a fun start.  Let's hope the race continues to be so entertaining.