Monday, July 06, 2020

Ups and Downs

The good news is a reported 212 people died of coronavirus in the U.S. yesterday, the lowest daily number since March.  I know it represents 212 tragedies, but we see that sort of death rate every year during flu season.  Or to put it in a different perspective, more than twice as many die every day from accidents.

The bad news is how can we trust this number?  If you look at the chart for the past few months, the numbers have been going up and down on a weekly basis since early April.  The overall trend since early May is downward, so that's definitely a good thing, but why this weekly crest and trough?

I assume that's because we don't get full reporting on weekends, which is when the numbers dip.  For all I know, this being July 4th weekend, they held back even more than usual, and the numbers will jump even higher than normal the next few days.  (Certainly everyone has been watching for a spike lately.)

Why do we allow this?  I know people need weekends off, but this is a pandemic.  Is it too much to ask our institutions to put out a reliable, daily number? (And yes, I know there are charts that smooth out the trends. Still not good enough.)

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