Predictions For The Year

Outside some specific activity we've been having lately, this blog is still pretty much shut down.  Thus, I won't be giving out year-end awards, or making predictions for 2021.  Above all, there will be no wrap-up of film year 2020--which would have been canceled due to the virus under any circumstances.

However, I did make predictions for 2020 a year ago, so I might as well look back and see how I did.  Overall, no matter how accurate I was otherwise, I missed the big stories (COVID, unrest), so I might as well throw out my crystal ball.

Anyway, here are my guesses, with comments.

Domestic Politics:

The big prediction--Donald Trump will not be reelected.

Got this one right, though perhaps for reasons I didn't have a clue about.  The big unanswered question is what would have happened if there'd been no coronavirus?

Trump will not be removed from office before the election.

If you think all the way back to January, Trump was having an impeachment trial.  I didn't take it seriously, and soon everyone was in on the joke. 

Trump will get another Supreme Court pick.  And the nominee will be seated.

Called that one.

Democrats will hold the House but not take back the Senate.

I'm giving myself this one, even if the Dems manage to get to 50 seats in the Senate, because this prediction is for 2020. (A truly impressive prediction would have been we won't know the answer to this by the end of the year.)

No major bills will pass.

I'd say this is wrong.

There will be no major construction of The Wall.

I'd say this is right.

The requirement citizens have new IDs for air travel will be postponed.

I think I'm wrong about this, but since no one's traveling anyway it doesn't matter much yet.


Supreme Court:

The Supreme Court will punt on transgender rights.

Actually, the Court came down on the side of the LGBTQ community.

If the Second Amendment case is not dropped, the Court will extend gun rights.

The Court didn't hear the case, so I guess this is moot.

The Court will allow tax credits for religious schooling.

Got this one right.

The Court will defer to the Trump administration on DACA.

The Court, 5-4, declared the Trump administration's actions arbitrary and capricious.


International Politics:
 
Brexit will finally go through.

Good call on my part.

Immigration into the U.S. will not slow down.

I'm not entirely sure, but I think it did, though for reasons I couldn't foresee.

There will be a major terrorist attack in Europe.

True, though so much was going on in the world it was hard to notice.

The Economy:

The Dow will be lower than where it is now by the end of the year.

It sure looked like this would happen, but the Dow managed to rebound and is higher than it was. Hope you didn't keep your money in a mattress.

Unemployment will be up by the end of the year.

Sure is, but not for any reason I could have guessed.  Unemployment was doing just fine, under 4%, and then due to the virus and the lockdown, jumped to around 15%. It's been going down since, but is still somewhere between 6 and 7%.
 

Sports: 

Tom Brady will retire

He's like the Energizer Bunny.

Gong out on a limb here--Clemson will beat LSU. (A week ago I predicted Ohio State would not be the top college team, but that's already been proved right.)

LSU won.  Seems like a decade ago.

The Wolverines will lose no more than two games in the Big Ten.

Even with a shortened season they managed to lose four games.


Popular Culture:

Movies:

The crystal ball is very cloudy on the Oscars.

Best Picture--The Irishman because they're not sure what else to do

They spread the wealth pretty wide this year, but The Irishman was the one major film that went home empty-handed. Parasite won four Oscars, including this one.

Best Actor--in a highly competitive category, Joaquin Phoenix will best Adam Driver

Called it

Best Actress--Renee Zellweger will take it over Charlize Theron, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o and Scarlett Johansson

Called it, though Saoirse Ronan was nominated, leaving Lupita in the cold.

Best Supporting Actor--Brad Pitt will finally win an acting Oscar, beating out his competition from The Irishman

Called it

Best Supporting Actress--Very close, but it's between Jennifer Lopez and Laura Dern, with the former emerging as winner

Laura Dern ended up winning.  Jennifer Lopez wasn't even nominated.

Best Director--Noah Baumbach will surprise over Martin Scorsese

Baumbach wasn't even nominated, so it was left to Bong Joon-ho to surprise everyone with his victory.

Best Foreign Film--Parasite

Since it won Best Picture, this award was pretty much redundant.

Television:

James Holzhauer will win the Greatest Of All Time Jeopardy! tournament.

Old reliable Ken Jennings won.  Holzhauer blew it so badly in the last game that some suspected this sports gambler had bet against himself.

HBO will not have a show that replaces the popularity of Game Of Thrones.

The final season of GOT was averaging domestically total viewers numbers over 15 million.  By comparison, the latest season of Westworld had total viewers somewhere between one and two million, and Succession's numbers were even lower.

The average rating for the four networks combined will go down.

There was an uptick in March and April, when the pandemic hit, but then the numbers continued to decline. The Big Four lost about 10% of their viewership. (Though it was a good year for news channels.)