It's Over, #3 in a Series

It's over, for real this time. Forget polls predicting how people will vote, we now have exit polls on how they've already voted.

In Florida, Gallup says that 30% of registered voters said they'd already cast their vote, and Kerry is ahead 51% to 43%. Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register poll says 27% have already voted, and Kerry is ahead 52% to 41%.

Now I admit there are some problems here. Even with new rules and attitudes, I find it hard to believe so many have already voted. It would mean less voters on Election Day than beforehand. (Not impossible. Oregon does it all by mail.)

Also, these polls are far from perfect. Gallup, for instance, is famously erratic; Bush has had an incredibly shrinking lead in Gallup just this past week for instance.

Yet, unless these polls are strongly unreliable, they solidly suggest Kerry's going to win in Iowa and Florida. (Either they show Kerry is more popular, or Kerry is better at getting out the vote, which is just about as bad.)

It's generally believed for Bush to win he must take two of the three big swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In 2000 he took the first two. This year, Bush was polling best in Florida, so if he can't win there, he's in big trouble. He still has a shot if he can take one of these biggies, but then he's also gotta clean up a few smaller blue states, such as Wisconsin and Iowa. If he can't take Iowa, he blows his last chance.

So that's it, everybody. The election is over. Please stay home, your vote doesn't matter.

After the official election is over, I will explain how Bush blew it, and what it means for the country. (Unless Bush wins.)