How do they know?

Hollywood producers, by and large, make films to make money. (Those who don't care about profits don't last too long.) I'm not saying they don't try to make them good--the better they are, the better they do. What's so enjoyable about the whole carnival is no one knows what will work, except the public as a whole. While there's some regional variation, in general a hit is a hit throughout the country. The public doesn't get together to discuss which films to make or break, but they act as if they do.

Premiere used to predict the top hits of the summer, which was always fun after the fact to see how wrong they got it. Now there are lots of places, including the Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Defamer, Box Office Mojo, and Box Office Guru, that provide weekly guesses.

This weekend, almost everyone expected Be Cool to outgross The Pacifier. They were wrong. Last week, no one thought any film, much less the unheralded Diary Of A Mad Black Woman, could unseat Hitch from its #1 perch, and they were wrong again. I'm not laughing at them. Could you do any better?