A New Calculus?

Perhaps Chief Justice Rehnquist was planning to retire, but we'll never know. In any case, his death (which seems a lot less front-page in the wake of Katrina) raises tricky options for President Bush. As expected a few months ago, there are now two open seats. I think my previous analysis still applies. Except now we've seen the President play his hand a bit.

When he had a chance to replace Justice O'Connor, Bush's nomination was mostly received with huzzahs on the Right. Here was a man without much paper trail (tough to Bork him), but who seemed a solid conservative. And at the very least, Bush didn't see the O'Connor spot as an "affirmative action" seat, requiring a woman or black or Latino.

So it does seem as if he wants to reshape the Court--more than his father or even Reagan did. The question is now will he nominate another white male? One might get a pass, but two in a row could raise a ruckus. (Meanwhile, the Right will say if we can't get a conservative through now, regardless of color or sex, we never can.)

On the positive side for Roberts, now that the Court is short two conservative votes, he'll seem less dangerous--in a way, even if he's as "bad" as Rehnquist, he won't be changing the Court's makeup. Perhaps Bush will even attempt a two-for-one and nominate the personable Roberts for Chief Justice.

Columbus Guy says: Everyone bow to LAGuy and chant, "We're not worthy, we're not worthy." AP reports, "Bush nominates Roberts for Chief Justice."