Monday, January 09, 2006

Predictions for 2006

Continuing our annual tradition, here are predictions for 2006.

Iraq: The situation will continue to improve, though violence will continue as well. Some troops will be withdrawn. Saddam will be found guity and executed. Slight inroads will be made on America public opinion that Saddam was, in fact, a great threat to the US.

World Politics: Even without Sharon in charge of anything, there will be military action taken (from somewhere) against the threat of a nuclear Iran. Communism will not spread further in South or Central America. Some European states will adopt stricter anti-terror measures. Lead politicians in Germany, France and Britain will all have plenty of trouble keeping up their popularity. US-China relations will remain stable. Palestinians will not be able to get it together--violence will roil any territory they control.

American Politics: Though the Republicans have some work to do, they will retain both the House and Seante, while some statehouses will be lost. Hillary will remain the Democrats' unquestioned leader for '08. Howard Dean will continue to embarrass the Democrats but will not be removed. There will be no serious impeach Bush movement. No clear conservative Republican leader (i.e., not McCain or Giuliani) will emerge yet for '08.

Pop Culture: Brokeback Mountain will win the Best Picture Oscar. (I actually predicted this a month ago before it was conventional wisdom.) The battle for Best Actor will see Philip Seymour Hoffman edging out Heath Ledger. Sorry, Joaquin. There will be no sitcoms in the top ten. The Sopranos will be big, of course, but not as big as they've been in the past. The general trend in movie attendance will still be down, but not as fast as it was diving in 2005. Record sales will also go down as more people download. Record stores will become rarer. So will movie rental stores.

Economy: There will be decent growth in the beginning of the year. Annually, it won't be better than last year. The Dow will break 11,000 (I predicted this last month as well).

Law: Alito will become a Justice. If Bush gets another nominee, the process will be tougher.

Sports: Michigan will lose no more than 2 games in the regular season, saving Lloyd Carr. More than 7000 players will enter the World Series Of Poker. It will be won by someone who's never won it before.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

LA Guy's predictions look pretty good to me. Moreover the ones he made last year held up well. However, he's not always on the money. Here are some predictions made by LA Guy on Dec. 8th.

"...King Kong will obviously be a blockbuster, and certainly has a decent shot of taking the year (I count all them money it makes in 2006). The bigger question is Narnia. ... Obviously it'll do well, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near Potter numbers"

8:44 AM, January 09, 2006  
Blogger LAGuy said...

I've checked my December 8 post and LAGuy (tm) said nothing like that, so I don't know what you're talking about.

Perhaps a friends sent you an email making that prediction. I can guess what he was thinking.

First, King Kong did underperform, but when all is said and done it will still end up in the top four or five of the year, both domestic and worldwide.

Second, he probably discounted too much all the marketing for Narnia that got the Christian base out in the US. He was right, however, that the Potter film will be bigger than the Narnia film. Look at overseas grosses, where Narnia is presently at $225 million and doubtful will reach $300. Meanwhile, the fourth Potter film made $568 million in comparable markets.

1:36 PM, January 09, 2006  
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