Something More About Larry
John McCain's campaign is clearly in trouble. With a lack of funds, it may even implode.
Earlier this year I made my annual predictions. I'll discuss them in about six months, but I remembered that some of the commenters also made predictions. I'm now going to unfairly pick one out, by Lawrence King, and see if he wants to retract it yet.
After I said there'd be no clear Republican leader emerging from the pack, here's how Larry responded.
I disagree, and predict that by Fall 2007 it will be clear that McCain is the frontrunner. In fact, he will be seen as difficult to beat.Even if leaders of the Conservative Movement attack McCain for not being conservative enough, they will get very little traction. The fact that these "leaders" were silent while Bush increased spending drastically has compromised their authority. Meanwhile, McCain is positioning himself closer to Bush -- supporting his troop increase request and sounding more like a social conservative. As proven in 1968 and 1988, Republicans give the benefit of the doubt to frontrunners who claim conservative credentials, even when these are dubious, and McCain is much more conservative than Nixon ever was.
I'll give Larry credit--his predictions are specific and fearless.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:35 AM
6 Comments:
Yes, I concede that my prediction regarding McCain was utterly false. Indeed, around that time (but not on your blog) I was predicting the implosion of the Hillary campaign, and that now looks totally false too.
My other predictions on this blog look a bit mixed. I predicted the motu proprio regarding the Latin Mass "no later than March", but it came out on 7-7-07. My prediction # 1 is still plausible (too early to be sure). # 3 is coming true, as long as you restrict it to Hillary and Obama and Edwards. And Gore: I predict that if Gore does throw his hat in the ring, his plans for Iraq will instantly become more vague.
I still think # 4 is true, but we won't know for sure until November 2008. The conventional wisdom here in the Bay Area is that the Religious Right, and the abortion issue in particular, made a brief impact in November 2004 but are now increasingly irrelevant. The major media seems to agree, with occasional glimpses of a different reality, like this op-ed in the NYT. I would give about 3-to-1 odds that my theory is correct. If I am, then if the Democratic nominee doesn't tack signifantly to the center on abortion, and the GOP nominates a pro-life candidate, then the abortion issue will benefit the GOP in November by several points. On the other hand, if the GOP nominates a pro-choicer, this will be cataclysmic for them, virtually guaranteeing a loss. (This is based on the theory that a substantial fraction of voters -- perhaps as much as 5% of the total -- have been voting GOP precisely because of their abortion stance. On the other hand, the number of folks who are voting Democratic solely because of their abortion stance seems to be negligible.)
As Heinlein remarked, when your predictions have proven false, you should always make new predictions, "like a dog returning to its vomit...."
By the way, despite my Heinlein quote, I don't want to replace my McCain prediction with a new one. I honestly have no idea who the Republicans will nominate, and I find that sort of staggering.
My theory is that the Democratic rank-and-file are very focused on the 2008 election, while the Republican rank-and-file is focused on the 2007 Iraq War. The Democrats hate Bush but they also are busy anticipating the day he leaves office. The Republicans are puzzled by Bush, and many of them are honestly unsure if he's as incompetent as the media says he is (which is scary), or if he is actually competent (which would be nice, but then it means his strategy is a complete mystery).
I will admit to almost all of my preictions as "Reader" to have almost completely whiffed on my predictions. My only prediction for the rest of the year- I will not take up gamblin
John McCain is doing poorly- his only strategy now (and it is a longshot) is to create a belief that he is finished and low expectations so that a 3d place finish will make him look like the Comeback Codger. [Though firing campaign workers is maybe better than having them arrested or linked to pedophile probes (see Guiliani)]
Kerry took a similar route (though probably not intentionally)
Let me just say to "Reader" that at least you went up to the plate and made specific, disprovable predictions. That's what it's all about. And your accuracy is no worse than the average psychic.
LA Guy's predictions look pretty good at this point (possibly explaining his somewhat oblique reference to them at the beginning of this post?) Nice job LA Guy
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