Predictions For 2007
I'm still waiting for AnnArborGuy and ColumbusGuy to give their 2006 awards. I can't wait forever, though, and it's time to move on to predictions for 2007.
Iraq: The new Democrat Congress will affect but not derail Bush's plans. Violence will continue but democratic institutions will be built up.
World Politics: The Palestinians will continue to attack Israel and each other. Castro will die but Cuba will remain a prison.
American Politics: (Note: Some of this depends on how Tim Johnson does.) The Democrats will reverse a lot of rules at first, but eventually fissures will develop that slow down the passing of laws. Bush will get very few of his proposals through, and will change from signing statements to vetoes. Bush will not be impeached. Protectionist legislation will be passed. The 700-mile border wall will not be built. Hillary will remain the Dems front-runner for 2008, even with significant disenchantment among the base. No single clear leader will emerge from the Republican side.
Popular Culture: Helen Mirren will win the Best Actress Oscar. The Departed and Dreamgirls will get the most undeserved Oscar nominations. The final Sopranos will be seen as disappointing. American Idol will not go down in popularity. At least three of the top five grossing films of the year will be sequels.
Economics: The U.S. economy will continue to grow at the rate it's been growing for over a year. The dollar will stabilize.
Law: Alito will often vote differently from how O'Connor did. This will mean, among other thing (assuming Kennedy and Roberts go along) that affirmative action as presently practiced will be greatly affected, which will create a larger reaction than usual for a judicial opinion.
Sports: Pistons go all the way. The Tigers won't do anywhere near as well as last season. Michigan will finally beat Ohio State.
Internet: The blogs will break another scandal bringing down yet another big name.
posted by LAGuy @ 1:49 AM
6 Comments:
Hard to argue with many of those (except Michigan).
I think you invited readers to offer their predictions so here they are- 7 for 07- but since only a commenter, I will leave bald statements bereft of my expertly-reasoned analysis
1. Iran will push Iraq to page 2
2. Bush will abandon the "base" and reach across the aisle for several "bipartisan moderate" issues with some but limited success
3. "Workforce shortage" will become a big issue as boomers retire.
4. Baltimore over New Orleans 13-6 in one of the most boring least watched super bowls ever
5. The seasonal aberrations of of over 50 degree days in December/January int he NorthEast will push green building/global warming legislation in both Congress and several states but despite the hype it will be largely symbolic without much practicial effect (though it will further marginalize the industry scientists' positions)
6. As the positions clarify, Immigration will continue to become a wedge issue like abortion, taxes and war.
7. Blockbuster will be out of business (or well on the way)
Thanks for your comments. I guess we'll see how you did next year.
Hmmm.... some of LAGuy's predictions are pretty vague. A bit less daring than in previous years?
I'll offer a few predictions myself:
1. Nancy Pelosi will not move the Congressional Democrats to the middle. Two reasons: (a) this is always difficult, as seen in 1993 and 2001; (b) deep inside, she would rather be the most powerful Democrat in the USA than the adjunct to a Democratic president.
2. Pope Benedict XVI will issue a wide permission for priests to celebrate the old rite of the Mass (the "Tridentine" or "Latin" Mass) no later than March of this year.
3. By late 2007, every Democrat who hopes to be elected president in 2008 will be very vague in their statements about Iraq, because they will have realized that the Iraq War will not even be close to over in January 2009 and they would rather not commit themselves to any strategy this far in advance.
4. The media, the Democrats, and many Republicans will continue to misinterpret November 2006 as a sign of the religious right's decline.
And I agree with Reader's prediction # 7. Within a couple years, Netflix and Amazon will dominate the rental and buying markets in a way that no physical store chain ever has. I can compete with Blockbuster by opening a video store closer to your house than Blockbuster. But I can't open a website closer to your house than Netflix, and now that everyone knows their name, competition is almost impossible.
I retract my statement about LAGuy's predictions being vague. Rereading them, I think I was mostly reacting to the blog one, and it's unreasonable for me to expect that LAGuy knows which major figure will be taken down by a blog.
Unless, of course, he's taken down by this blog.
Years ago, in a second-hand story, I bgouth an album made in the 60s by some clairvoyant--can't remember his name. I figured this'll be fun, I can hear what he predicted and get the instant gratification of knowing how things turned out.
It was a huge disappointment. His predictions were so vague they meant nothing. His excuse was rather than say things straight out, it'd be more fun if he said things in poetic language, or something like that. I wanted my buck back.
LAGuy also wrote:
No single clear leader will emerge from the Republican side.
I disagree, and predict that by Fall 2007 it will be clear that McCain is the frontrunner. In fact, he will be seen as difficult to beat.
Even if leaders of the Conservative Movement attack McCain for not being conservative enough, they will get very little traction. The fact that these "leaders" were silent while Bush increased spending drastically has compromised their authority. Meanwhile, McCain is positioning himself closer to Bush -- supporting his troop increase request and sounding more like a social conservative. As proven in 1968 and 1988, Republicans give the benefit of the doubt to frontrunners who claim conservative credentials, even when these are dubious, and McCain is much more conservative than Nixon ever was.
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