Rules Are For Chumps

I generally don't like Karl Rove but I'll admit he knows a lot about running campaigns. He has a good piece in the Journal today (subscription required until Murdoch fixes it) about the new rules for running a Presidential campaign. Its pretty good and informative and he leaves off the crass partisan stuff until near the end. (Anybody who thinks the Republican contest has been more about ideas didn't watch the ads for NH).

However he seems to make the mistake most pundits make- trying to generalize "rules" and "lessons" from very specific facts and circumstances. For examples- He says you can't skip six primaries and expect to compete in the 7th because of Giuliani's experience and that you can't come in halfway through a process and expect a groundswell of support (Thompson) and that you can't buy support (Romney, Paul). The answers should be- yes, you could but you would have to do it differently from these guys. Rudy's strategy might have worked if he a) stayed in the news cycles during the early contests, b) punched up his public persona so as not to seem so sluggish in most of January and c) better managed disclosures about his personal life. Thompson would have benefitted from better planning and occasionally displaying a pulse. Romney and Paul could have spent their money far more wisely i.e. -on better ads (I think both lost support with the drivel they were peddling) and on creating a buzz outside of ads (which I think and Mr Rove agrees, seem to be ceding some of their influence to other media).