Staying Mad
Barack Obama's strong pull for many superdelegates is the fear that blacks will desert the Dems if he isn't running. (Okay, not desert so much as stay home.) My guess is the vote will be a bit depressed, but with nowhere else to go, they'll come around for Hillary. Remember, she was beating Obama in the black vote before they figured he had a chance.
Sure, we see bizarre things like this:
Michelle Moore, an Indianapolis housewife, is less gentle: "Hillary Clinton would not even still be in the race if Obama was a white man," she said.
But every Democrat will have months to cool down. It's hard to stay angry that long.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:06 AM
1 Comments:
Although it would not pay to alienate or show disrespect a loyal constituency who might well provide the tipping point in a close state, I don't think the Democrats are that concerned about losing the black vote if Obama is not the nominee - The loss there would be one vote as no one foresees a big African American turn out for McCain.
The bigger fear for the democrats is losing the crossover "post partisan" demographic that the Obama candidacy has energized to the other side (or effectively 2 votes). McCain with his maverick stature and reputation for sticking it to the party and true believers could conceivably capture some of this non-ideological, non-issues based segment. Or put more straightforwardly- these folks might not only abandon Hillary but might actually take their votes to McCain (and after a nasty primary, they might remember the dems more as the nasty politics as usual/ typical smear campaign types and vote for McCain as the breath of fresh air.
Of course, Obama as the candidate runs the risk of losing the working class "Reagan Democrat" types who have been providing Clinton with her margins of victory to McCain whose war hero/ straight talking approach might seem more attractive- of course Hillary runs that same risk- she doesn't look like an elitist now because of her competition, but the "cookie-baking" comments and all the rest would be highlighted in a general.
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