Summer Will Be A Little Early This Year

I guess I better start making some predictions about the big summer films before it's too late. (I expect Vermont Guy might join in as well.) After all, with Iron Man's huge opening, it's already the film to beat.

So let me go over the major releases of the next few months and guess how well they'll do. I admit the whole exercise is silly, because despite what a lot of people think, the biggest factor is still does the audience like the film--you can't force a blockbuster on the public--and I haven't seen any of these except the first one.

Iron Man is already a blockbuster, and I assume it'll have legs. I'd guess it'll make over $300 million (all figures domestic) and be the #1 or #2 film of the year.

Speed Racer, opening next week, will be a disappointment. Neither fish nor fowl, I'd guess it'll have trouble beating Iron Man's second weekend.

The last Narnia film was a surprise blockbuster. It was expected to do well, but it almost performed at Harry Potter or Lord Of The Rings level. Those films had (and will have) sequels that keep bringing them in, and while I expect the latest tale of Narnia, Prince Caspian, to do well, I still expect a big drop since its story isn't that closely related to the first. It has a shot at the lower rung of the top five.

Next, Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull. Has time passed Indy by? Looking at the Star Wars sequels, I'd say no. It'll do well, and unless it really sucks, I would expect it to be in the top two or three of the summer.

Sex And The City: The Movie. Hmm. TV to film (with the same cast) is always tricky, and the estrogen factor limits the audience. I think it'll have trouble making $100 million.

Kung Fu Panda. Looks like fun, though even with fine voice work, it's the story that counts. I see it doing okay, but I don't think it'll be huge.

You Don't Mess With Zohan. Adam Sandler is pretty reliable--except for an occasional turkey, his comedies always break the $100 million mark. This one will too, though it won't get anywhere near $200 million.

The Happening. Certainly one of the question marks of the summer. M. Night Shyamalan had his first disaster, since he hit it big, with Lady In The Water. The Happening seems to be a return to form--or at least at attempt at it. I think it'll at least get back some of his crowd, and gross more than The Village and less then Signs.

The Incredible Hulk. I don't think, after the last one flopped, that the audience is ready for a new Hulk. It'll perform below expectations.

Get Smart. This is a film the audience wants to like, but won't deliver. A decent opening with no legs.

The Love Guru. Mike Myers wants to create a new character. It'll develop a cult--look at the name--but with the same sort of gags he always has, it'll do okay but come nowhere near the numbers he gets with Austin Powers.

Wall-E. I'd be a fool to go against Pixar. It'll be in the top five, and do better than Cars.

Wanted. Another question mark. Angelina Jolie has scored in action before, and James McAvoy is an up and comer, but with all the familiar names playing elsewhere, they might have trouble breaking through. Still, I think it'll do alright--over $100 million, under $200 million.

Hancock. Maybe the biggest question mark of the summer. Will Smith is the most reliable moneymaker in movies right now, but will people buy him in a superhero comedy? If it flies, it'll be huge, but I see it having some trouble taking off. Still, I can't see him doing less than $100 million, but I wouldn't expect more than $200 million.

The Wackness. Actually, no one is expecting this to be a major release. I just chose one of many smaller films to note that every summer something seems to come out of nowhere and hit it big. Could be this one as easily as any other.

Hellboy II. Was anyone really that excited by Hellboy I? A major director and a built-in name, but expect it to fade fast.

The Dark Knight. People are waiting for this one. And Heath Ledger only makes it bigger. It'll make over $200 million and be in the top five. (I haven't given out more than five in the top five yet, have I?)

Meet Dave. The latest Eddie Murphy comedy. He has his audience, but it's not as big as it used to be. The concept is weird, but let's say it ends up somewhere around $100 million.

Mamma Mia! This may play well as a live show, or in Europe, but do Americans really want to see something scored by Abba? Not a major hit.

Step Brothers. People are Will Ferrelled out. Will not make $100 million.

X-Files 2. Is this the 1990s? Will get the fans on the first weekend and then die.

The Mummy 3. Another sequel people don't need to see. It'll pass $100, but its glory days are over.

Pineapple Express. Sounds ridiculous, but it's hard to bet against the combination of Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen. It shouldn't have much trouble making over $100 million.

Tropic Thunder. A different sort of comedy with Ben Stiller. Definitely a question mark. Is it too little too late? Only a couple weeks left in the summer--maybe its best chance is everything else will be played out. But since Stiller's not playing the lovable loser, I'm not sure the audience will go for it. On the other hand, it's not only got Stiller, but Jack Black and the newest big star, Robery Downey Jr. I'd say it's got a 50/50 shot at breaking $100 million. (There's a worthless prediction.)

Bangkok Dangerous. Another Nicolas Cage action film. I don't think anyone is too excited--will have trouble reaching $100 million.

Babylon A.D. They're releasing this Vin Diesel sci-fi flick at the butt end of summer. I don't see it doing too well.

Okay, I'm on record. Let's see how it works out.