To(morrow)Night's The Night
Seems to me now would be an excellent time for the other Guys to post something. How about some predictions? Analysis the day after.
I'll start things off. Everyone knows Republicans will do well. The only question is how well. It's a matter of turnout, so no one can be sure. A lot of conservatives have unrealistic expectations, and I think they may be disappointed on a night they should be thrilled.
House: The Dems have a huge lead in the House. It'll take a net gain of 39 for the Repubs to take it back. I don't think that'll be a problem. I guess the Repubs will gain somewhere in the low 50s--let's call it an even 52. This is pretty good, but far short of the projections of 70 or 80 I've seen from some. Where do they get their confidence?
Senate: Here's where all the interesting races are. Right now Dems rule 59-41, which means the Repubs need a net gain of 10 to retake. Not gonna happen. Even without Christine O'Donnell it probably wouldn't happen. What makes this so hard to predict is about six seats look like toss-ups, and a bunch of others are close enough that surprises are possible. When the smoke clears, I see the Repubs picking up six to eight seats--let's split the diff and say seven.
Governors: These races are less interesting (unless it's where you live) and mostly matter because states create voting districts. Right now Dems run 26 of the 50. I predict the Repubs will have a net gain of seven states. Of course, it's not just the number of states, it's the populations. If Dems win New York (which they will) and California (which they will) that's a lot of people right there. So it's the more populous states in play like Illinois, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania that are most worth watching.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:03 AM
6 Comments:
How do governors races not matter? Ohio's in the hole about $8 billion of $50 billion, which it got from the feds. What's California in the hole? And we're not even counting pensions there, so the real hole is substantially higher.
So I'd say it matters a great deal, or it would if there would be a governor who would balance the books. Not even Christie is going to be able to do it, I would imagine.
My word verification is "warsoap'-fitting somehow
Apart from expecting republican gains and each side claiming victory- the reps because they gained, the Dems because the Reps didn't gain the 70-80 seats they projected & held on to the Senate.
It will be interesting to see what the idiot talking heads announce is the message of the election. (Remember- they said 2004 was all about the the reassertion of American values). I do predict the mid-term results (say 6 -9 months) of the Congressional Republicans being in power will be that the Democrats will be more popular and the Republicans will be less (and vice versa at the next turnover election until the economy improves)
In New England, I will guess that Republican Paul Le Page will win (in a battle of ideological dinosaurs) a comfortable victory (5-10%) as Governor of Maine (He's been complaining about negative ads- mainly one that claims he's associated with the Tea Party which he denies but he has no problem supporting the republican party platform's call for elimination of the Federal reserve system- go figure)- there is a late surging swell for the independent candidate but he's mainly taking the Dem candidate support.
Also I think there will be a close victory by Deval Patrick as the re-elected Governor of Massachusetts over Republican Charlie Baker (1997's "Smartest Man in State Government" and current HMO magnate) and "independent" candidate Treasurer Tim Cahill. Interestingly enough, Patrick will be helped again by heavy-handed ads and tactics from the Republican Governors Association which Baker is trying to distance himself from. Baker is smooth and talented but no blank slate Scott Brown and Patrick is certainly no Martha Coakley. Patrick has morphed from the proto-Obama hope & change candidate in 2006 to a very smooth unflappable governor who after some false starts seems a bit more at home in the system these days. Its helped that he's pushed and achieved some things (ethics reform, cracking down on some union abuses) which have pissed off the entrenched Democratic political class. Ironically this ended helping him because it launched a conservative dem candidate who is fading but is still taking more of Baker's votes than Patrick's.
Its also helped that as bad as things are, the economy in NE is generally a little better than the rest of the country- about a point lower than the national unemployment rate and house values are increasing-if marginally. NEG
I predicted the most popular Halloween costume would be Lady Gaga and I was proved right.
Years ago, I won money in Bruce's academy awards pool by following the L.A. Times' predictions.
Following the same logic, I'll defer to FiveThirtyEight's predictions on every race but one.
In the House, Republicans gain 55 seats for a total of 233. In particular, Kristi Noem wins in South Dakota (she's really cute), but Van Tran loses in Orange County (I hope I'm wrong; I knew him many years ago).
In the Senate, Republicans pick up 7 or 8 for a total of 48 or 49. Boxer wins (ugh), Marco Rubio wins, and Sharron Angle wins. Needless to say, the Aqua Buddha worshipper will win and the ex-witch will lose. I'll pick Miller in Alaska, although it's a tossup between him and Princess Murkowski -- but that doesn't change the totals since both are Republicans.
Republicans increase from 23 to 31 governorships, including Nikki Haley (who's even cuter than Noem, and much smarter than Palin). FiveThirtyEight predicts 30, but I'm breaking with them to predict Scott winning in Florida.
Depending on someone else? That's cheating.
Since Huffington Post absorbed Pollster.com. I've been hanging out there more than I ever thought I would. As a result, I may be more pessimistic than I normally would be.
Overall, I think the Republicans are going to struggle in the Senate. net pick up of 7, and I think their close winners will be Rubio in FL, Angle in NV (Reid is that detested), Toomey in PA and Johnson in WI bye bye Feingold). Kirk will lose in IL, Fiorina will lose in CA, Raese will lose in WV.
However, a side bet - if the Republicans manage a 9 seat pick up (tying the Senate 50/50), Ben Nelson will flip parties to give the Republicans control.
I'm more optimistic in the House. I predict a pick up of 65 seats - a hsitoric flip. I mostly base this on the last Gallup poll giving Republicans i think a 15 point advantage.
Governors, I don't know. Those are very local races, so I don't know how much a wave effects them. Specifically, I think Hickelooper will win Colorado (he's a ncie guy and the oppoition is split between Tom Tancredo and the Republican). I like to think if Rubio wins the Senate, Scott wins the FL Governorship. Whitman will lose (though I think CA is crazy for going with retread Brown). Predicting an upset - Deval Patrick loses in Mass., as the Senator Brown coalition reemerges to elect Baker the next Governor.
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