After Math

There's still some play left in a handful of movies, but I don't think it's too early to look back at the summer grosses and see how the Box Office Mojo predictions did.  Here's what they expected (all grosses domestic):

1. Harry Potter - $350 million
2. Transformers - $320 million
3. Kung Fu Panda - $285 million
4. Cars - $270 million
5. Hangover - $255 million
6. Pirates Of The Caribbean - $230 million
7. Captain America - $200 million
8. Thor - $180 million
9. Super 8 - $180 million
10. Zookeeper - $170 million
11. X-Men - $155 million

12. Green Lantern - $130 million
13. Bridesmaids - $125 million
14. Planet Of The Apes - $125 million
15. Smurfs - $120 million
16. Cowboys & Aliens - $95 million

Not bad, I'd says.  Some mistakes, but that's inevitable.  Let's start at the top.

Harry Potter was number one, doing a bit better than expected--looks like it'll end up at around $375 million.  Transformers also over-performed, and should end up at approximately $350 million.

But Mojo gets in trouble with a couple of cartoon sequels. I can understand, with Shrek and Ice Age parts 2 doing better than the originals, to figure new Cars and Kung Fu Panda would go through the roof, but in fact both were disappointments (though they no doubt made money, and both had huge foreign)--Cars 2 made $187 million and Kung Fu Panda 2 was even lower at $164 million.

They pretty much called The Hangover 2 on the nose.  Close on Pirates, too, which made around $240 million.

They expected Captain America to be the big superhero film of the summer, but it didn't quite make it.  Looks like Thor, which they called perfectly, will be on top, while the Cap ends up several million lower.

Super 8 was the big question mark of the summer.  And the answer is it's not quite as big as some thought it would be.  It only managed $126 million, not $180 million.

Zookeeper was the biggest miscall.  I guess they (and Hollywood) figured Kevin James in a big, family-friendly movie?  With funny animals?  How can it fail?  Well, it can if it's unwatchable.  Zookeeper ended up with $77 million.

Another big question was how would the X-Men re-launch go.  It did okay, though maybe not quite as well as expected, finishing with $146 million.

Everyone seemed to sense Green Lantern was the superhero film people didn't want to see.  The name certainly doesn't have the cache of the greater Marvel titles.  The film did even worse than expected, with about $116 million in the coffers.

Bridesmaids was--until a couple weeks ago--the sleeper hit of the summer.  When Mojo made its list, some of these films were already out, but even if anyone could see Bridesmaids was a hit, they couldn't predict its amazing legs.  It ended up with $168 million, bigger than any film directed by Judd Apatow.  I smell sequel.

Planet Of The Apes was a late-summer surprise, getting great reviews and over-performing.  It's still got plenty of play and will finish well above $150 million, through how much above we'll have to see.

Good call by Mojo on Smurfs versus Cowboys & Aliens.  I sure thought the latter would do better, but the blue guys are already over $125 million and have more to come, while C&A looks like it won't even make it to $100 million.

And how is the rest of the field?  Horrible Bosses was a surprise, and should end up around $115 million--it opened against Zookeeper and took it down.  Bad Teacher, another R-rated comedy, ended up just short of $100 million.

There are an awful lot of also-rans, of course.  Some, like Crazy, Stupid, Love, will make a decent amount but come nowhere near the century mark. And let's not forget Woody Allen's Midnight In Paris, his first domestic grosser to make over $50 million.

But the surprise of the summer is The Help.  It's just at $100 million and will be making plenty more  A small, character-based woman's film, backed by a bestselling novel, it's probably the biggest crowdpleaser of the season.  It's already out-performend similarly situated material like Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love.  For that matter, of all the big summer films, it seems the most likely Oscar material.  Will it start a trend?  Doubtful--there's no superhero in it.