Monday, January 02, 2012

Prediction For 2012

We just looked at last year's predictions.  Before we get too far into the new year, let's make some new ones. (Readers are invited to make whatever predictions they like in the comments.)

American Politics:

President Obama (and Vice President Biden) will be reelected in a hard-fought race against Mitt Romney.

Marco Rubio will not be on the Republican ticket.

The Republicans will take the Senate, but just barely.  The Republicans will hold the House.

The Occupy Wall Street movement will not have a great effect on voters (though I'm not sure how you measure this).

No new Supreme Court Justice will be put on the Court.

The Supreme Court will not find any part of Obamacare unconstitutional.

There will be no successful major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.

International Politics:

There'll be plenty of trouble in Europe, and the Euro will fail.

Assad will fall.

Castro and Chavez won't both survive the year.

The Economy:

By the end of the year, unemployment will be around 7%.

The Dow will be over 12500.


LSU will handily beat Alabama in the BCS National Championshp Game.

Green Bay will take the Super Bowl but it won't be a blowout.

Michigan football will lose no more than three games.

Popular Culture:

American Idol will still have enough power to be the #1 show on TV.

The crystal ball has never been cloudier for the Oscars in recent times, but here goes.  Best Picture: The Artist is too different, Tree Of Life is too arty, The Help is too old, so by default the winner is The Descendants.  Best Actor:  George Clooney (who's already won one) will just beat his friend Brad Pitt and new name Jean Dujardin.  Best Actress:  Michelle Williams.  Supporting Actor:  Christopher Plummer.  Supporting Actress:  The Help's Jessica Chastain will take away enough votes from costar Octavia Spencer to allow Melissa McCarthy to take the award in the most highly competitive category of the night.  Best Director:  Malik scares them enough to let Alexander Payne win.  Adapted Screenplay:  The Descendants.  Original Screenplay:  Could it be time for another Woody--Midnight In Paris.


Anonymous Denver Guy said...


Mitt Romney will get the Republican nomination (without a brokered convention). He will pick a hard core conservative as his running mate - my guess Rick Santorum to give him a shot at PA, but maybe someone like Condi Rice. I won't predict the outcome, but incumbency carries a lot of advantages.

Republicans will control the Senate with a 52 seat majority. House majority will shrink by no more than 5 seats.

The S.Ct will take the HCR case as an opportunity to breathe life into the "Coercion Doctrine," by saying Obamacare violated the 10th Amendment by virtually forcing states to expand Medicaid at their own expense or face devastating cuts in funding from the Fed. Gov't.

As for the S.Ct and the Obamacare Mandate - it's 50/50 which way they go.

Scott Walker will survive WI recall election in May, 2012.


Repeating my prediction of 2011, Spain will default on obligations, triggering the exit of Germany, France and a few other nations that will form a new, smaller EU. But this will not trigger world-wide recession.

Okay, here's a bold one. N. Korea will enter normalization talks with S. Korea in 2012.

Robert Mugabe will die or be "retired" from power in Zimbabwe.


The Pujols infused Angels will not make it to the World Series.

China will win the most gold medals and overall number of medals at the upcoming London Olympics.


Scientists will announce the identification of the theorized Higgs boson particle at the Large Haldon Collider.

Scientists will also confirm evidence that a neutrino traveled faster than the speed of light.

POP CULTURE (I'm so bad at these)

"The Hobbit" will edge out "Batman, The Dark Knight Rises" for highest grossing film of 2012. Since Hobbit won't be done showing by end of Dec., we'll have to wait some into 2013 to know for sure, but the signs will be there.


The World will not end in conjunction with the end of the Mayan Calendar. (At least no one will be able to tell me if I lose this one).

11:29 AM, January 03, 2012  

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