Predictions from 2011
I guess it's time to respond to my predictions for 2011. (There are also some predictions in the comment section from Denver Guy and Anonymous--they can discuss if they wish. Vermont Guy also had predictions.)
The predictions are in italics, my comments aren't.
American Politics:
Obama will not compromise on his values and major legislation will be difficult. There will be intense differences over environmental regulation. No major new initiatives in general will be passed (though everyday financial deals will be struck). Obama, and Harry Reid, will blame any problems on Republican obstructionism.
The compromise part I'm not sure about. I think there were some fights over environmental regulations, such as the keystone pipeline and light bulbs. New major initiatives? Hard to say, but nothing comes to mind. And yes, the Dems, who run the White House and the Senate, do blame the Republican House majority for certain things not happening.
Republicans will not successfully cut the budget except in the most cosmetic ways.
I realize these are gimmes, but hey, it's still true.
Obama will not get a chance to nominate a Supreme Court Justice in 2011. (If he does, the Republicans will attempt to block the nominee through filibuster.)
Got it.
And the end of the year, Obama's popularity will be around 50%. The Congress's popularity will rise as well, but not go that high.
For most of the year it was in the low to mid 40s, but lately, for whatever reason, it's gone up a bit to the upper half of the 40s, if not quite 50%. Considering our continuing economic problems he should be happy it's not ten ponts lower. Congress, on the other, is getting even more unpopular, if that's possible.
The Congress will not have much luck chipping away at Obamacare. I realize this won't happen this year, but the Supreme Court will not find any part of the law unconstitutional.
There has arguably been some chipping away, but not from Congress, as the Senate wouldn't even consider any such bills from the House.
As for the Supreme Court, the prediction is ongoing.
There will be no successful major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
I think this is correct, though it may depend on how you define "major" and "terrorist."
The Tea Party will continue to strongly affect Republican politics.
They certainly still have a major effect, though it may be waning.
Sarah Palin will not choose to run for President. (Neither will Hillary Clinton. And Joe Biden will not leave.)
Yes on all three in 2011, and I expect in 2012 as well.
International Politics:
The Euro will be ailing, but will survive.
It's still around.
There will be at least one major terrorist attack in Europe.
I'd say I got this wrong.
There will be no progress in Israeli/Palestinian talks.
Might have even gotten worse.
The Economy:
By the end of the year, unemployment will drop below 9%, and possibly below 8%.
Called it, even if some say it's slight of hand.
Housing prices will not rise this year. Gas prices will.
Houses not rising much if at all. Gas has gone up and down but I believe ended the year up.
Right now the Dow is around 11500. Will it end the year below 11000, above 12000, or in between? I predict it'll be above 12000.
Another roller coaster ride, though it ended over 12000, as predicted.
Sports:
Oregon will beat Auburn in the BCS.
Auburn beat Oregon in a close game.
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay beat the Steelers.
2011 will be a better year for Michigan than the last three. Coach Rod will lose his job. (I wrote this before the Gator Bowl.)
Rod lost his job and it was a much, much better year.
Popular Culture:
American Idol will not be the #1 show on TV.
It's been losing viewers, but still held on to #1 for an unprecedented eighth consecutive year.
Very hard to read the tea leaves for this year's Oscars. Best Picture: The Social Network. Best Director: David Fincher will beat Darren Aronofsky, Danny Boyle and the Coens. Best Actor: Colin Firth will beat James Franco. Best Actress: Annette Bening will beat Natalie Portman. Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush wil beat Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner and Mark Ruffalo. Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld. Best Adapted Screenplay The Social Network. Best Original Screenplay The King's Speech.
I was mostly wrong, if in the ballpark in that I got the nominees right. Best picture, The King's Speech. Best director, Tom Hooper for King's Speech. Best actor, Firth. Best Actress, Portman. Supporting Actors both from The Fighter--Bale and Leo. Got the screenplay awards right.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:12 AM
2 Comments:
AMERICAN POLITICS
Democrats in the Senate and Republicans in the House will find some significant deficit reduction legislation to pass - and President Obama will veto it. Probably because NEA will face massive or total defunding. Congress will not be able to override the veto and some stop gap legislation will keep the government running at 2010 spending levels.
Well, I was right about stop-gap legislation, but Congress was even more dysfunctional than I predicted.
California, with new Governor Brown running herd on the state legislature, will slash spending. Nevertheless, several municipalities will default in California, and probably in a few other states (Illinos).
Jefferson County, AL was the biggest municipal default in history, but otherwise, count me among those misled by 60 Minutes in predicting dozens of collapses in 2011.
Sarah Palin will remain uncommitted on running for President, as will Hilary Clinton.
Half right so far. Hillary Clinton has said she won't run, and I think she won't unless it becomes clear before the Dem Convention that Obama is losing by a large margin, which probably won't happen.
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
Spain will default on obligations, causing a real crisis in the Euro. As a result Germany and France will come up with some way to back out of the Euro and recover the Mark and Franc (maybe a dual currency regime).
We got close, but Spain is still hanging in there. But I'm with LA Guy and will continue this prediction into 2012.
Kim Jung Il will either die or initiate another attack on S. Korea and be ousted from power through Chinese and internal military pressure. N. and S. Korea will begin serious re-unification talks thereafter.
Fidel Castro will die - nothing will change in Cuba.
Got Kim Jung Il - just. I think had he not been sickly, he would have been forced from power. Since it was clear he was on his way out, I think the factions seeking to replace him bided their time. I can't explain Castro, though.
US ECONOMY
Unemployment will remain stubbornly at 9% or so.
I think I got this. We only dropped to 8.6% in the last month (we'll see how Dec. does, with a lot of seasonal hiring).
Stagflation will set in, with gas prices leading the way to a CPI increase of 3 to 5%.
We're at about 3.2% through November.
DOW will crash again sometime during the year below 10,000, but will recover into 11,000s before year end.
The recovery has been stronger than I predicted.
SPORTS
San Francisco will not repeat in the World Series (okay that one is not that bold). The Phillies will return to the World Series and beat the Yankees.
Ugh. Perhaps MLB is really moving toward greater parity.
POP CULTURE
Harry Potter VIII will fail mightily at the box office as movie goers are unable to grasp the meaning of the finale.
I clearly have little understanding of the film industry. But I would say that the final Harry Potter installment was a lot better and comprehensible than I expected.
You did pretty well overall.
But really, you thought Brown would slash spending?
It would be hilarious and both Palin and Clinton were still hoping to jump in.
Castro stopped smoking.
Unemployment is, in a way, the biggest question of 2012. That single number may do more to determine who's President than anything else.
I thought you were joking about the final instalment of Harry Potter. It was the obvious choise for top-grossing movie of the year.
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