Not So Quick Silver
The usually alert Nate Silver makes an surprisingly blinkered argument when he claims the Supreme Court striking down Obamacare won't help the President in November.
Here's how he puts it:
1. Mr. Obama does not face a major problem with his base, but his standing is tenuous with swing voters.
2. Among swing voters, the health care bill is not very popular.
3. The Supreme Court declaring the health care bill unconstitutional will not make it more popular among swing voters.
All true, but it has nothing to do with the real point. This isn't about getting the base worked up, or figuring out a better way to sell the health care law. What matters is if the Court tosses out Obamacare, it'll mean Romney can't run on the issue (in fact, he'd be the candidate who successfully passed government-run health care). For voters in the middle who don't like the law, it'll mean it's no longer necessary to vote in Romney to get rid of it, as he's promised to do.
Obamacare hurts Obama. No Obamacare, less trouble. What about this does Nate Silver not understand?
posted by LAGuy @ 12:11 AM
4 Comments:
It's too late for voters to forget it. They associate it with Obama, and they'll continue to associate it with Obama, at least if Romney is not a nitwit. (And surprisingly, it looks like he might not be. Still not voting for him, but it's good to see.)
Besides, all Obama has to do is issue a couple of orders through Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and voila, there it is again. What about this don't you understand?
Obamacare is very unpopular among people who will never vote for Obama anyway. The Supreme Court decision will have effects on the race in terms of different kinds of overheated rhetoric but not much more
I agree with LA. We know the Obama administration did what it could to speed up consideration of HCR - they could have dragged their feet and put off a decision to next session. But there calculus must have been:
1. If it's upheld, Obama can run on his major accomplishment, and criticize Republicans for wasting so much time and money.
2. If it's struck down, it will be struck in June, months before the election, so the embarrassment will have faded by Nov., and it forces Romney to propose an alternative plan that Obama can shoot at.
Voters do want health care reform, and striking down HCR allows Obama to do what he does best - promise hope and change.
Anon #1: It's not about forgetting Obamacare, it's about the wish list of voters. High on many lists is getting rid of Obamacare, and if the Supreme Court does it, then there's no need to vote for Romney to do it--Obama can't revive it by fiat even if he wishes to.
Anon #2: As Nate Silver himself notes, Obamacare is unpopular among independents, who will likely decide the election. Yes, indies who don't like it may be leaning away from Obama, but there are enough who can go either way that the issue is important.
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