King Me

As Cersei told Ned Stark, in the game of thrones, you win or you die.

This season of Game Of Thrones seems to be leading up to a battle royale.  But then, that's all they do on this show--strategize, maneuver around and occasionally strike.  Even after someone becomes king, the struggle continues.  And since viewers know there are more books and more seasons to come, we realize no matter who's king when the dust settles, that just starts another round.

Years ago, I made odds on which Lost characters would survive, but that was more based on what worked dramatically, and popularly.  In GOT, except for Renly, who couldn't win because it was too easy, there's no reason for any character to finish on top.  Still, let's look at the show (from the point of view of someone with no knowledge of the books) and see how things stand.  Renly has been scratched, but there are plenty of others in the race.

Joffrey:  He's in the best slot--already king.  All he needs is for nothing to change.  Unfortunately, almost everyone is coming for him, and he's the biggest jerk is Westeros.  Luckily, he's got the House Lannister behind him, which includes some of the greatest brains around, including Tyrion and Tywin.

Robb Stark:  Robb is an unexpected genius at warfare.  Perhaps the biggest thing stopping him from taking the Iron Throne is that he doesn't want it.  If he can take King's Landing, he still plans to go home.  Some would be satisfied to let him be King in the North, but most wouldn't, so who knows what he'll be forced to do?  Also, he needs ships, but the Greyjoys have turned against him with a rear-guard action, which makes it even tougher to do what he must do. His Bannerman love him, but will they start to stray with trouble back home?

Lord Stannis:  His odds keep improving.  Not only is he a battle-hardened warrior with a good advisor, but he's got, at present, the most troops, as well as an alliance with pirates that gives him ships, and even a little magic.  He's also got the best claim, but it's unclear if that makes any difference.  His main deficit it he doesn't inspire loyalty, which can be disastrous (though it's not as if Joffrey is particularly loved).

Daenerys Targaryen:  She has a decent claim on the throne, but she has a lot of problems. First, she's only got a small band of followers. (For a while she may have had the Dothraki, but that seems to be over).  Second, unless she gives in to her suitor, she has little money and no ships.  Third, she's far away on the other side of the world (which at least is a good place to hide while she regroups).  Fourth, she has next to no support in Westeros, and that's where the fighting will be.  But she's got an ace in the hole--first the first time in centuries, she's got dragons.  They're the equivalent nuclear weapons in her world.  The trouble is until she even learns how to use them, they've got to grow up, and that may take a while.  Meanwhile, she has to figure her way around the world of Qarth, which itself might be tricky.

Mance Rayder:  The real wild card.  A former member of the Night's Watch, he now calls himself the King Beyond The Wall.  But if the Wildlings go wild, what's the stop them from going to warmer places and taking over everything?  We haven't even met Mance yet, or seen him in action, so it's hard to judge how well he'll do.