R&R
So the big political news is Romney chooses Paul Ryan as his running mate. Everyone knew Ryan was on the short list, but I still didn't think it'd be him. He strikes me as the most dangerous choice possible.
In particular, Ryan has discussed modifying the holiest of holies, Social Security and Medicare. This may be necessary, but it also led Newt Gingrich last year to attack him for "right-wing social engineering." That didn't play well with conservatives, but when the Democrats pick it up--and they will--it might frighten a lot of people in the middle.
There are plenty of pluses with Ryan. He's young and vigorous (especially when compared to Joe Biden). He can take apart the Obama economic record pretty well. He's a sign to the base that Romney is serious about reform. He's from the Midwest (though Wisconsin is hardly a state Romney needs, whereas others on the list were from Ohio, Florida and Virginia). He understands how Congress works. (Actually, that used to be a plus--now he can be painted as one of those evil insiders). And he'll keep things lively.
Generally, veeps don't make a difference, but I'm still surprised. I don't know what went into the calculus, but perhaps Romney is playing a different game from what I thought.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:02 AM
5 Comments:
Zach Woods (Gabe from The Office) can play him in the HBO campaign pic in 2015
The Ryan pick does two things. First, I think it guarantees a win in the VP Debate. Second, it really puts WI in play Of the two, the second is more important because almost any VP was likely to win a debate with Biden (Palin being the only real exception).
Following the Walker win in the WI recall election, I believe Romney really sensed momentum for the GOP in that state. It seems likely that Either Thompson or Hovde is likelyto win the Senate seat against Tammy Baldwin. With that much tail wind, WI really seems witin reach.
And a win in WI, lowers the pressure to win Ohio a bit. It's not a clean swap, but combine WI with CO or Iowa, both trending toward Romney in recent polls, and the path to 270 beciomes easier. And if Romney wins Ohio and WI, I think he's just about won the election.
I don't see how you are logically consistent. If it doesn't matter, but it's dangerous, you have to be arguing that opposition can use it to attack effectively, but proponent cannot use it to promote effectively. I suppose it can be one way in some circumstances, or opportunities better for one side in some circumstances.
I suspect it's rather just a piece in the puzzle, and since it takes multiple factors, all these conversations are really about several more factors than are being discussed explicitly at any one time.
I think my favorite thing is articles of the sort that each side is delighted (that is, different articles; no one seems interested in discussing both sides of a coin, much less the side they don't like). Mitt just said "Julie Andrews," but soon enough one side or the other is going to be blowing the raspberry.
Denver Guy: The reason Obama has to be the favorite is that Romney needs to take a lot of close states. He's pretty much got to win Florida. Then he's got to also take North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. If he lost just Ohio, he's got to run the board on all the other close states. It's true there are a few other states that might be a surprise, like Wisconsin, but I'm far from sure if Paul Ryan gives him that.
Anon: I'm not sure where you see inconsistency. In general, VP picks don't make a difference in the election. But of all the choices, Ryan's name was the most dangerous. I assume Romney thought he'd be a positive to the ticket, and maybe it'll work, but I'm guessing Ryan's pick, though it has some bedazzled, has a big potential downside.
I think this shows Rommey sees it as a close election where base turnout is the key.
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