It'll Soon Be Over

The Oscars are in a week.  Favorites are emerging, but a lot of categories are still fairly competitive.  Here's a list of the top categories with what I think will win and what I want to win.

Best Picture"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Brooklyn"
"Mad Max: Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"The Revenant"
"Room"
"Spotlight"

Not the most impressive list, but exciting in that there's no odds-on favorite.  In fact, with eight nominees you can get odd voting patterns so anything can happen.  I suppose the favorite is The Revenant--big film, big names, big money--but Spotlight and The Big Short are nipping at its heels.  If I had to pick one it would be either Room or The Martian.

Best DirectorAdam McKay, "The Big Short"
George Miller, "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "The Revenant"
Lenny Abrahamson, "Room"
Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight"

Inarritu is the favorite.  If he hadn't won last year, it'd be over.  Both Miller and McKay have a chance to sneak in.  My pick would be Miller or Abrahamson.

Best ActorBryan Cranston, "Trumbo"
Matt Damon, "The Martian"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

A surprisingly weak crop.  It looks like it's DiCaprio's turn to win.  I'm not thrilled with any of these choices, but I guess I'd pick Fassbender or Damon.

 

Best ActressCate Blanchett, "Carol"
Brie Larson, "Room"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"
Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"
Saoirse Ronan, "Brooklyn"

Brie Larson will win and should win.

Best Supporting ActorChristian Bale, "The Big Short"
Tom Hardy, "The Revenant"
Mark Ruffalo, "Spotlight"
Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies"Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"

I keep getting reminded of what a weak year this is.  It's looking like Stallone is the big sentimental favorite.  I'd give it to Bale or Hardy.

Best Supporting ActressJennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"
Rooney Mara, "Carol"
Rachel McAdams, "Spotlight"
Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"
Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs"

More weakness.  What a year.  The favorite now seems to be Vikander, perhaps due to lack of competition.  I guess I'd give it to Kate Winslet.

Best Original Screenplay
"Bridge of Spies"
"Ex Machina"
"Inside Out"
"Spotlight"
"Straight Outta Compton"

The favorite is Spotlight, since that's the most likely of these to win the Best Picture.  I guess I'd give it to Inside Out because there's not much else here.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay"The Big Short"
"Brooklyn"
"Carol"
"The Martian"
"Room"

The favorite is The Big Short--so get ready for a speech from a Hollywood multi-millionaire on the evils of greed.  I'd probably give it to The Martian, or maybe Room.