Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Update

I should wait till the end of the year, but with 2017 one-third over (wow!), let's have a quick look at whether or not my crystal ball was cloudy.

The following are predictions I made on January 1.  My comments are in italics.
     
Domestic Politics:

The Republicans will repeal Obamacare, despite ferocious opposition from the Democrats. However, they will use half measures, not really pleasing anyone.
 
Looks like it may soon be happening, though we'll see.

Trump's first nominee to the Supreme Court will please conservatives and will be confirmed.  A contingent prediction--if the Dems try to filibuster, the Repubs will use the nuclear option.

Called it.

There will be no hearings for another Supreme Court nominee in 2017.

We'll see.  Some are saying Kennedy or Thomas should retire to let in a new person, but I ask why would they do that voluntarily?

Strong rifts will appear among the Republicans--and both Trumpians and establishment GOP will complain about certain things the Trump administration does.

I guess this is so.

Trump will have trouble getting the entire amount he wants for infrastructure.

He hasn't really tried that hard so far.

Trump will start building The Wall, but construction will go slowly.

If he's started at all, it's going very slow.

The Keystone Pipeline construction will continue apace.

Seems to be.

Trump will attempt to cut off money to sanctuary cities.

He's certainly attempted it.

Former President Obama will speak regularly in public about the direction of the country.

So far wrong.  He's been too busy enjoying himself and making money.

There will be a fair amount of civil unrest in the U.S.

I think this is true.  Perhaps depends on what is meant by unrest, but there have been huge demonstrations and certainly lots of trouble on campus.


International Politics:

Cuba will remain solidly communist.

I think so.
The U.S. will seriously consider pulling out of the UN.

I think not.  Same for NATO.

Trump will have trouble renegotiating trade treaties.

We'll see.
There will be more than one major terrorist attack.

Alas, yes.

The EU will be on the verge of falling apart.

I'd say yes, though it depends on how you define "verge."


The Economy:

By the end of the year, the Dow will be above 20000.

A decent chance.

By the end of the year, unemployment will be over 5%.

Let's hope not.

Gas prices will not be significantly higher than they are now (which is a bit over 2 bucks a gallon).

We'll see.


Sports:

The BCS Bowl will be a repeat, with Alabama defeating Clemson.

Called it. (Though is it still call the BCS Bowl?)

The Patriots will win a hard-fought Super Bowl.  (My team, the Lions, will not get past the first playoff round.)

I'm not sure if hard-fought is strong enough to describe the Patriots' comeback.

The Wolverines will take the Big Ten Conference.

We'll see.


Popular Culture:

Movies:  The Great Wall will disappoint. [correct] The Fate Of The Furious will not be as big as Furious 7[correct if you're talking domestic]  Wonder Woman won't come close to Batman V. Superman numbers.  Dunkirk will be a fiscal disappointment, as will Blade RunnerStar Wars: Episode VIII will be the highest-grossing picture of the year (including its 2018 receipts), but it won't surpass The Force Awakens.

TV: Game Of Thrones:  Season seven (with only seven episodes) will have Arya reunite with at least one sibling.  Jon Snow will not find out his real parents.  The Hound will either fight his brother or meet Arya (or both).  Dorne will support Dany.  Dany will meet Davos, or Brienne, or both.  Ser Jorah will see Khaleesi again. Samwell will become a maester. White Walkers will broach the Wall.  Littlefinger will not die.  Tyrion will not meet Cersei.  We haven't heard the last of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

The Walking Dead:  In the rest of season seven, Negan will die, Rick, Carl, Daryl, Carol, Morgan and Michonne will not. [wrong about Negan]

Better Call Saul:  Jimmy will finally become Saul.  Mike will start working for Gus. [Jimmy is taking a long time to change, but we'll see.  Mike is already working for Gus]

Oscars: Some tricky choices here.  Best Picture will come down to La La Land and Manchester By The Sea, with the former winning. [wrong, unless you go by Faye Dunaway's word] Best Director: Damien Chazelle. [yes]  Best Actor: Casey Affleck (though his personal scandals might bring him down).  [yes] Best Actress:  Very cloudy here--especially with the Adams/Huppert/Portman/Stone quartet.  I'll go with Portman, though I may change my mind later. [did change my mind, but too late]  Best Supporting Actor:  Mahershala Ali (though it won't be fair if Dev Patel is nominated, since he's the lead in the second half of the film) [yes].  Supporting Actress:  Michelle Williams or Viola Davis.  It's Davis's turn, but Williams had the more memorable crying scene. [Davis won] "City Of Stars" will take Best Song. [yes]

2 Comments:

Blogger New England Guy said...

"Looks like it may soon be happening, though we'll see."

Based on what? The ignominy of the first attempt?

12:49 PM, April 26, 2017  
Blogger LAGuy said...

There are two parts to the prediction--the GOP passes a new health care plan, and it'll be a pointless plan that doesn't really deal with what it should.

The plan being discussed now meets the second requirement, and, as it seems popular, may soon meet the first.

1:20 PM, April 26, 2017  

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