Predictions From 2017

Time to check how well I did with my predictions for 2017.

Domestic Politics:

The Republicans will repeal Obamacare, despite ferocious opposition from the Democrats. However, they will use half measures, not really pleasing anyone.

This looked way off for most of the year, but then the GOP passed a tax bill that got rid of the mandate, which cuts to the heart of Obamacare.  So I'll give myself half a point.

Trump's first nominee to the Supreme Court will please conservatives and will be confirmed.  A contingent prediction--if the Dems try to filibuster, the Repubs will use the nuclear option.

Correct, though the nuclear option is so common now it's not worth commenting on.

There will be no hearings for another Supreme Court nominee in 2017.

Correct.  The main question now is will Kennedy leave, but that's for 2018 predictions.

Strong rifts will appear among the Republicans--and both Trumpians and establishment GOP will complain about certain things the Trump administration does.

Maybe I should give myself half a point.  There was plenty of in-fighting, and a lot of trouble with legislation, but the Republicans overall held together reasonable well.

Trump will have trouble getting the entire amount he wants for infrastructure.

I guess this is right.  He got very little.

Trump will start building The Wall, but construction will go slowly.

Some would claim there have been token attempts on starting the Wall, but saying construction has been slow is too kind.

The Keystone Pipeline construction will continue apace.

Correct.

Trump will attempt to cut off money to sanctuary cities.

I guess he attempted in a vague way, but does that mean anything?

Former President Obama will speak regularly in public about the direction of the country.

He has spoken out more than once, but regularly? No. Unless you count his people speaking on his behalf.

There will be a fair amount of civil unrest in the U.S.

Definitely.


International Politics:

Cuba will remain solidly communist.

Some might claim they see change, but I guess this is true.

The U.S. will seriously consider pulling out of the UN.

Trump has been a lot more hostile to the UN than Obama was, but isn't planning on pulling out, though he is pulling out some U.S. money.  Maybe a quarter point.

Trump will have trouble renegotiating trade treaties.

Too early to tell, but I don't think this is correct.

There will be more than one major terrorist attack.

Yes, though it depends, I suppose, on what's major.

The EU will be on the verge of falling apart.

I think this is true, though, once again, a judgment call.


The Economy:

By the end of the year, the Dow will be above 20000.

Do I even deserve a point for underestimating its climb?

By the end of the year, unemployment will be over 5%.

Wrong.  The economy was solid.

Gas prices will not be significantly higher than they are now (which is a bit over 2 bucks a gallon).

It went up (though it seems to be going down in the past few months).


Sports:

The BCS Bowl will be a repeat, with Alabama defeating Clemson.

It was a good game, but Clemson won.

The Patriots will win a hard-fought Super Bowl.  (My team, the Lions, will not get past the first playoff round.)

New England won in an amazing game.  I don't even remember the Lions, so I assume they lost in the first round.

The Wolverines will take the Big Ten Conference.

It started well, and ended poorly.


Popular Culture:

Movies:  The Great Wall will disappoint. The Fate Of The Furious will not be as big as Furious 7.  Wonder Woman won't come close to Batman V. Superman numbers.  Dunkirk will be a fiscal disappointment, as will Blade Runner.  Star Wars: Episode VIII will be the highest-grossing picture of the year (including its 2018 receipts), but it won't surpass The Force Awakens.

I was right about The Great Wall.  Right about Furious.  Way off about Wonder Woman (if we're talking domestic).  Wrong about Dunkirk.  Right about Blade Runner.  Right about The Last Jedi.

TV: Game Of Thrones:  Season seven (with only seven episodes) will have Arya reunite with at least one sibling.  Jon Snow will not find out his real parents.  The Hound will either fight his brother or meet Arya (or both).  Dorne will support Dany.  Dany will meet Davos, or Brienne, or both.  Ser Jorah will see Khaleesi again. Samwell will become a maester. White Walkers will broach the Wall.  Littlefinger will not die.  Tyrion will not meet Cersei.  We haven't heard the last of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

Right about Arya.  Right about Jon Snow (we know, but he doesn't).  Wrong about the Hound.  Right about Dorne (a lot of good it did her).  Right about who Dany will meet.  Right about Jorah.  Right about Samwell, in a way (which means I'm wrong in a way).  Right about the walkers.  Wrong about Littlefinger (he only had to hold on for one more episode).  Wrong about Tyrion.  Right about the Iron Bank.  There'll be no Game Of Thrones in 2018, so no need for new predictions.

The Walking Dead:  In the rest of season seven, Negan will die, Rick, Carl, Daryl, Carol, Morgan and Michonne will not.

Way off about Negan--season 8 is half over and he's still around.  Maybe it was wishful thinking.  Right, as far as season 7 goes, as to the rest not dying.

Better Call Saul:  Jimmy will finally become Saul.  Mike will start working for Gus.

Jimmy is at least halfway to Saul, and Mike has started working for Gus.

Oscars: Some tricky choices here.  Best Picture will come down to La La Land and Manchester By The Sea, with the former winning.  Best Director: Damien Chazelle.  Best Actor: Casey Affleck (though his personal scandals might bring him down).  Best Actress:  Very cloudy here--especially with the Adams/Huppert/Portman/Stone quartet.  I'll go with Portman, though I may change my mind later.  Best Supporting Actor:  Mahershala Ali (though it won't be fair if Dev Patel is nominated, since he's the lead in the second half of the film).  Supporting Actress:  Michelle Williams or Viola Davis.  It's Davis's turn, but Williams had the more memorable crying scene. "City Of Stars" will take Best Song.

La La Land was announced the winner.  But it was a mistake, and Oscar-bait Moonlight won.  Got Best Director right.  Got Best Actor right.  Emma Stone won Best Actress.  Got Best Supporting Actor right.  Viola Davis won Best Supporting Actress--did I call that one? Got Best Song right.