Conventional Thinking

Since the rules were changed in the early 1970s to give the people more say in picking presidential nominees, brokered conventions have been a thing of the past.  But some are starting to think the Dems might just have one this summer.

The primary system, in general, fights against this.  It's a long road and it takes money, so those with little hope tend to drop out early, leaving a few candidates and, generally, one clear leader who ends up with a majority of delegates. (There are a couple billionaires running this time around who have all the money they need, but there's still no evidence anyone can buy enough votes to make a difference.)

But if polling stays steady (which it probably won't), the vote is split enough that we may get that brokered convention.  Sanders has become the clear leader in polls, but it's not yet overwhelming--he's not above 30% nationally.  Meanwhile, there are four other candidates in double figures--Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren.  And there are a couple others--Klobuchar and Steyer--who could possibly cause trouble.

The key, I think, is to have enough states won by someone not named Sanders.  Bernie won the popular vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, but over the next two and a half weeks, we've got Nevada, South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.  If Biden (or any other candidate, though right now Biden does best in the polls) can win a handful of states, and Sanders finishes third or lower a number of times, it may still be a race. (And note the states are not winner-take-all--15% of the vote can get a candidate delegates.)

The key would be at least three (four would be better) serious candidates sticking around so no one can easily get half the delegates.  But then, even a strong plurality would probably end things pretty swiftly at the convention--if Sanders comes in averaging 40% of the vote and has 40% of the delegates, and no one else is close, I can't see the Democratic party easily denying him the nomination (though it might be fun to see them try). It's not just that he'd have the leverage--it's the idea of what would happen if he were denied.  His supporters would probably go nuts, and many might refuse to vote in the general election.

But right now it's still unlikely.  Let's wait and see till after Super Tuesday.  (Would it be fun to start with Super Tuesday?  So much fun that neither party wants to do it.)