Take It For Granite

The primary season has become quite enjoyable.  All the swings--almost daily--and no one has any clue yet how things will turn out.  My main hope, as in 2016, is for a brokered convention, but the system works pretty hard against that.

So tonight's New Hampshire primary should be a lot of fun. You know what they say--Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.  Not that that means anything, it just sounds good.

I'll enjoy the outcome no matter what, since pretty much anything that happens will be surprising. (Not that I consider it all a comedy. Eventually, one of all these people will get the nomination and have an excellent chance of becoming president.)

What we've got is a battle between "progressives" and "moderates." (The quotes may seem cheap, but I don't see that much difference between them.) In the leftist slot, it's Bernie and Warren.  For the centrist position, it's Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden.

The first battle seems almost over.  Bernie won the Iowa vote and is positioned to win big in New Hampshire, with Warren far behind.  If she fails here, it might be the end.  The question would then become can the Dem establishment take Sanders out.  It may seem simple--if they could just get behind one candidate--but that's what people said about Trump.

The most amazing sight so far this season is the fall of Biden. He'd been ahead from the start, and allegedly represented the establishment. But his disastrous finish in Iowa, not to mention his campaigning since, has him potentially facing fifth place in New Hampshire.  In fact, he's already conceded the state and is hoping that Nevada and especially South Carolina will be his firewall. He's still polling well in those places, but such polls are volatile, and if he loses big twice, will anyone want to stay with him?

It seems after Iowa that Buttigieg became the standard bearer for the center, and he will likely finish a solid second behind Sanders.  But Klobuchar seems to be on her way up in the ever-changing polls.  If she can manage third, will that give her the momentum to eventually take on the other moderates?

Then, of course, there's Bloomberg and his bottomless wallet waiting in the wings.  A lot of people have tried the strategy of sitting out the early races, and it's never worked.  I still don't think it will work for Bloomberg, but it'll be fun to see him give it a shot.