Oscar Oscar Oscar

Been a busy week, hasn't it.  And now it's time for the Hollywood ceremony that's been making traffic miserable out here for the past week, the Oscars. Figured I might as well give you my picks and guesses.

Best Picture

When there are nine choices, votes can split in interesting ways.  The Irishman seems to have lost its luster,  Joker will get its reward elsewhere.  Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari don't quite have the heft.  I'm not sure if Little Women or Marriage Story have enough backing.  So it's probably between 1917 and Parasite, with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood perhaps peeking through.

I'd guess it'll be 1917.  It seems to have the momentum.  Personally, none of them stands so high above the others, but I guess I'd pick Once Upon A Time, for all its imperfections.

Best Director

As in Best Picture, I think the battle is between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon-ho.  I'm going to flip a coin now...congratulations, Bong Joon-ho, it was tails, you win. (1917 is all technical anyway.)

If I were voting, it'd be between Todd Phillips, who made something special of Joker, and Quentin Tarantino.  I think I'd lean toward Phillips.

Best Actor

Some fine performances here, but I think it's clear the Joaquin Phoenix will take it. And I'd vote for him.

Best Actress

It looks like Renee Zellweger will take it for her portrayal of Judy Garland.  I suppose that's okay, though I might lean toward an actress who played another real person, Charlize Theron.

Best Supporting Actor

Some good work here, not to mention all illustrious names.  But the easy winner--for the Academy and for me--is Brad Pitt.

Best Supporting Actress

An interesting mix.  It looks like Hollywood will give it to Laura Dern.  My choice would be Kathy Bates.

Best Original Screenplay

Once again, you've got the three top films for Best Picture, and it could be any one of them, but I'm guessing Hollywood will figure this is the place to give Quentin Tarantino his Oscar for Once Upon A Time. Why not?--he's won two writing Oscars before (and none for direction).  Though Parasite has almost an equal chance.  I'd vote for Quentin.

Best Adapted Screenplay

A less impressive category than Original Screenplay, and also the toughest to call.  It's a chance to give Greta Gerwig or Taiki Waititi an Oscar, since neither got a director's nod.  I'm guessing one of them will win--let's go with the latter.  The Two Popes is certainly a writer's script, but I don't think enough people are excited.  And The Irishman seems to be fading.  You can't rule out Joker, and I think that's the one I'd vote for.