It's All BS From Now On
Looks like Bernie Sanders has the nomination. Let's put it another way: the path to defeating him is slim and getting slimmer by the day. The latest Dem debate had the candidates taking shots at him, though it seemed like too little too late. (Why did they waste the previous debate trying to bring down Bloomberg, who wasn't even on the ballot yet?)
Is there a reasonable scenario where he doesn't take it? Just barely. First, he has to lose South Carolina on Saturday and then lose a few states (especially California or Texas) on Super Tuesday. Right now all that seems unlikely.
The Democrats seemed to think they had time to coalesce behind a moderate candidate, but that's not how the momentum of politics works. You need to do more than win your "lane"--you've got to make sure the guy in the other lane isn't getting too far ahead.
Not to get ahead of myself, but let's assume there are no major surprises and it's Sanders versus Trump. A lot of people are saying Sanders can't win. Maybe they're right, but weren't they saying that about Trump four years ago?
For one thing, while Sanders' rhetoric can be pretty wild, and he's got a radical past, it's not as if his politics are that different from the "moderates" he's facing. Sometimes he goes a bit further, perhaps, but how many of his policies does his party completely disavow? They (as well as Sanders) are too busy disavowing the policies moderates held ten or twenty years ago.
When it gets down to one-on-one, anything can happen, and the American public isn't generally that ideological. Bernie, like Trump, is an economic populist. His policies and talking points thrill a lot of people--especially the young vote, 18-29. They were born after the Cold War, so capitalism versus socialism doesn't mean much to them. More important, they're just starting out and don't have a lot of money, and here's a guy promising college will be free, health care will be free, etc. (not to mention the rich will pay for everything). And Sanders seems to be playing well with the Latino vote, too.
In addition, there are a whole bunch of people who will vote for anyone with a D in front of their name, and a whole bunch of people who'll never vote for Trump. It's true, there are more than a few voters who reject Sanders' socialism--particularly among white suburbanites--but if he can get enough of his voters to the polls, it won't take much to turn around some of the close losses that brought down Hillary.
Who knows? I certainly don't. Maybe Sanders will turn off certain states he needs to win, but perhaps he'll excite certain states that Trump needs to win. Should be an interesting race.
posted by LAGuy @ 7:00 AM
4 Comments:
You are a lot closer to the California race than I am, and I would agree that if Sanders wins the overwhelming majority of CA delegates, he has a clear path, barring another heart attack. But I also think Trump would beat Sanders one on one. The never-Trump movement has always been way overstated. A relative handful of conservative/libertarian voters are so appalled by Trumps rhetoric that they feel obliged to oppose him, but most of the rest judge by results on the S.Ct, the economy, and in wars. Average Democrats and certainly independents won't buy that Trump is the most "dangerous" President ever (per Schumer, who used to pal around with and accept donations from Trump). Except among the younger set, they may not vote for Trump, but they won't be super enthused to vote for Sanders. And the younger set will skip voting if there is something good on Netflix.
That said, the media will definitely make the race fun to watch, promoting a horse race interpretation of all polls.
I have no idea what'll happen in November no matter who's running. But I do figure that anyone has a chance against Trump. Even if the economy continues to do well he's still never that popular--but he's also shown he can win without being that popular. But he's still got to thread the needle, winning Florida and picking up a few blue wall states.
The reason Bernie looks like the likely opposition is simply the momentum of the primaries. How do you deny the top delegate getter the nomination (even if he doesn't have the majority, though if most drop out along the way, he probably will).
That said, there is a scenario emerging, even if it's not probable.
Some thing Sanders has peaked. It's now clear he's the leader and except for Warren the other candidates aren't thrilled, and many of their voters are scared. So they'll start to turn against him. The real question, which matters a lot, is can he get the African-American vote--which is finally coming to the fore in SC.
So say Biden wins SC convincingly--not that unlikely--and moderates realize there’s a hope (mostly Biden) to stop Bernie.
The bandwagon effects then gives Texas to Biden (even if Bernie takes CA).
Meanwhile, all the Southern states in Super Tuesday aren’t great for Bernie.
So Arkansas goes to Bloomberg or Biden, with Bernie in third. Maybe he's not so invincible any more. And Bernie also loses Virginia. Perhaps Colorado and/or Oklahoma.
For that matter, even if Bernie wins some of these states, you’ve got to look at the numbers. If his plurality is based on a number below 30%, or not much above, and Bloomie and Biden are both close behind, the feeling will be underwhelming—all three may score delegates, with Bernie not getting a majority, and so people know if only one moderate ran, Bernie would have lost.
Meanwhile, Bernie wins Vermont—no one cares. Klobuchar probably takes Minnesota--no one cares. Warren even takes Massachusetts and no one cares.
So after Super Tuesday, it may be clear the Buttigieg and Klobuchar are finished. Steyer too. If they drop out, most of their votes will go to Biden or Bloomberg. (Though if Warren drops out—and it looks like she wants to be Bernie’s running mate—he’ll likely get her votes). So we could have a three-way race with no clear leader, at least for a while. And the fun will continue.
Anything can happen as we learned in 2016. The one thing Bernie has going for him is the appeal to same populist appeal to the angry disaffected working class in the Midwest. Trump said he would go after the rich guys (how did that work out?) and Bernie looks like he would actually do it. we will see- these votes are the ones that lead to modest electoral college victory in 2016.
I still think anything can happen on Super Tuesday and while Bernie is the best placed right now, its far from a slam dunk at this point. You still have the phenomena of the "strategic voter" who votes based on who they think can beat Trump versus who they most agree with (and that opinion varies more widely and are more all over the map than policy difference opinions).
Bloomberg's entry probably solidified Sanders' position
New England Guy writes "Trump said he would go after the rich guys (how did that work out?)"
Here's how it worked out. Unemployment levels dropped to their lowest in decades for the working class, and the bottom fifth of workers saw their incomes increase faster than the top fifth. That's how it worked out.
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