No Predictions
I wrote a long post on the upcoming election, but erased it. Ever since 2016, I figured I should stop making predictions anyway.
Let's just say I don't get how some conservatives think they're going to win. If things change a lot, maybe, but Biden has been consistently in the lead for months now, in ways Hillary could only dream of. And he's also being an old-style politician, running toward the center ever since the Democratic National Convention ended.
Conservative boosters make a number of arguments that things are going well, but they all sound like whistling past the graveyard. My favorite is they claim people are lying to the pollsters. Really? In every poll? And the pollsters can't tease out revealed preference some other way? (By the way, the final polls in 2016 showed Hillary winning the overall vote by 3%. She won it by 2%.)
It's true Trump has to only win all the swing states he won last time (presuming that would also mean he'd win all those other, easier states). But right now, he's behind in just about every one of them.
One problem, maybe THE problem, is Trump can no longer run as an outsider, and it's a good time to be an outsider. The problems we've had this year, he owns--especially the coronavirus, where his lack of political polish has been disastrous for his chances. And even before this year, Trump's crude style turned off a lot of Americans--look at the GOP's miserable showing in 2018 (a bigger vote gap than 2010 or 2002).
So let's just say it seems highly doubtful, unless we see serious, steady movement in polls that haven't been moving too much, that Biden will take it.
PS The race for control of the Senate is more interesting, and just about as important.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:30 AM
4 Comments:
Good thing you're not making predictions.
The race for Senate is most important. Another four years with the House firmly controlled by the Democratic Party won't make much difference (except in the Supreme Court). But a Democrat controlled Senate with a Biden President will mean a significant swing to the left in short order. Of course, the swing might overstep the public "mandate," resulting in a push back in 2 years - who knows. All in all, I resist the idea that this is the most momentous election in a century (they seem to say this almost every 4 years).
If Trump is elected, it'll just mean more of the same.
If Biden wins, and the Democrats take back the Senate, it's over. It means they'll change long-standing procedural rules so they can get anything through, and even more significant, they'll legalize over ten million new Dem voters, forever changing the demographics and radicalizing the country.
I wouldn't say forever. Immigrants as much as anyone ultimately look at results. It might be a decade of poor economic decisions, or stumbling into a war soewhere, but people are people, and if they are unhappy, they may change their voting habits. I dare say NYC may take a chance on a Republican mayor next time around.
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