Guilty Pleasure

Considering it's about the dumbest idea for a game show ever, I have to admit I watch Deal Or No Deal (when I'm home and it's on). I generally prefer game shows that require intelligence, such as Jeopardy!, but Deal Or No Deal, as ridiculous as it is, has an interesting mixture of suspense and big money.

The game is simplicity itself. The contestant picks one of 26 briefcases. Each case has an amount in it from 1 cent to a million dollars (not actual money, but a number). From there, the contestant eliminates more and more briefcases from consideration. Along the way, with increasing frequency, the "bank" offers money for the contestant's case, based on the dollar amounts left. What's offered is usually less than the expected value of the case, but can still be a lot. This is because about a quarter of the amounts available are six or seven figures, so if even a few are left, they can bring up the average quite a bit.

The suspense--and what little strategy there is--involves whether the contestant will take the deal or not. Almost everything about the show I hate. The dumb luck. The glitz. The host (Howie Mandel). Worst of all are the friends and family brought by the contestant for raucous support and, believe it or not, strategic advice.

But the numbers are fun. And the suspense--turning down life-changing amounts and possibly ending up with next to nothing--makes the show fascinating. I like how the suspense is statistically built in. In you eliminate a lot of low numbers, you'll be offered huge amounts, and that's exciting. But if you eliminate some large numbers first, the odds are you'll start picking low amounts next and the offers from the bank will keep rising, which is also exciting. The odds that you'll pick all low or high briefcases is so unlikely it will almost never happen.

As silly and mindless as the show is, I can understand why it's a hit all over the world.