2008

OK I just finished watching Rockin' New Year's Eve of the Living Dead on ABC. It may be uncharitable but Mr. Clark needs to be retired to his cryogenic chamber- his teeth looked like they they were falling out as he made Romero- inspired groans and lurches. The kids with me (ages 11-16) were alternately cringing and laughing (which of course was my response to their favorite bands)


Its tempting to fall into the mistake of thinking everything is dependent on now and predicting the upcoming year's events based upon an extrapolation of current conditions. That being said, here we go.

Major Issues-

1. Iraq- Unresolved- Enough political progress and ongoing violence and upheaval for both pro and anti war factions to claim they are right. Significant troop withdrawals in 08 will result in increased instability but not so much instability as was feared or threatened.

2. Election Too hard to call- Will not be Hillary vs. Rudy (although one of the two might still be nominee, this is not a favorable time for favorites). Election will likely turn on localized events and issues. Rightwingers and religionists will be underwhelmed by their candidates and the center will continue to be underwhelmed by the tilt of the last 8 years and will shift thus resulting in a Democratic President and Congress, though not one in lockstep with each other- non-partisan deadlock.

3. Global Warming/ Green Construction. Rightly or wrongly, there will be continued acceptance and marginalization of critics to the Tobacco Institute. The conversation will move from whether the weather is changing to what an effective response is. Ex- Bushies will become lobbyists for China. Green building continues to be a major industry force (I predicted this last year perhaps overstating its visibility in the public) More and more major retailers and construction operations will move to LEED certification for economic as opposed to public relations reasons.

4. Football Patriots win in 2008 and 2009. Ho hum. Even I don't like them anymore. The Super Bowl loser will be one of those teams that play on FOX and just as memorable as the team that lost to the 72 Dolphins (was it Washington? Minnesota? Dallas?- who knows or cares?)

5. Baseball. Steroids wil be the big story but cronyism and short-sightedness will prevail as Selig and Fehr stay in office. Since so many will be named(including players more popular with old sportswriters), the sport will turn to framing it as a "societal problem" rather than individual demonization of unpopular Bonds/ Canseco characters. Boston will come close to overtaking the Yankees for obnoxiousness but fall short. Red Sox, Yankees will contend but not win it all. (Dem presidential candidate will be thankful- obnoxious victorious northeasterners would otherwie cause blow back in the red states). Pirates will improve by 10% and win 75 games. Cleveland- A's in ALCS, Arizona-NYM in NLCS Cleveland beats Dbacks in WS.

6. Movies- Some movie I haven't seen will win (I only see movies that my 11 year old wants to see and I don't think "Fred Claus" will have much support).

7. Dow - Stays over 14000 after June 30 but does not break 15000.

8. Press - WSJ under Murdoch will remain superficially the same except for the editorial page. Loyola 2L (read the law blog) will be outed and become the whiny voice of his generation