BCS for President- Iowa Round
See yesterday's post "Iowa Betting & Fever Dream" for context- my browser is not permitting links for some reason.
I understated the turn-out that Obama would generate but Hillary and Edwards finished within 2%. Obama has clearly tapped into youth-inspired "we need a fresh approach" approach similar to Hart and Dean (neither of whom, after their initial splash came close to winning the nomination but on the other hand, neither did anything in Iowa either) With the top 3 Dems taking 97% of nutty Iowa totals, the second tier was even more irrelevant than I imagined and the hangers on are dropping (Biden, Dodd). All Hillary has to do in NH is finish ahead of Edwards to claim "comeback kid" again and I'm guessing that if the present follows history, her organization should take her through the spate of primaries in early February and onto the nomination. The real struggle for the Dems would be if if it became a two or three race (with Edwards though I don't believe that likely) which leads to increasing bitterness and hurts party unity (not really a Dem party strength- viz. 2006 -07 Dem Congress v. 2000-2005 Repub Congress).
Huckabee's evangelicals rescued him from recent campaign missteps but he only garnered 14% of non-evangelicals so I'm guessing 3d or 4th place in NH and relegation to the fringes with Ron Paul. He completed his mission by fatally wounding Romney (he should die in NH- many members of the Mass republican party areattacking him and bringing to light his ineffectiveness as governor). McCain had a decent showing (but I think he was polling higher a week ago) for little effort and Fred T did better than I expected.
posted by New England Guy @ 5:05 AM
6 Comments:
Hillary's hardly done yet, but the question is her orgazational strength enough. Most people don't pay close attention until it's time to vote, and generally seeing headlines about Obama winning might be enough to sway them in his direction. Obviously if Hillary wins New Hampshire she's the front runner again, but the real question is if she doesn't, does she still have enough to take the big state, since if she wins in New York and California, the rest don't matter too much. As for Edwards, he's toast, since it was always going to be Hillary plus one.
On the other side, I'm surprised you are treating Huckabee like everyone else as a spoiler. The guy just won spectacularly. Who has the power in the Republican party to beat him? Yet, Romney is hardly through. No one is the clear leader yet.
Huckabee tapped into the same strength that made Pat Robertson a winner in Iowa in 88. Luckily for the Repubs, Huckabee is personable media-savvy speaker and will probably not address witchcraft at the convention. Huckabee will have his committed followers throughout but that wing of the party no longer holds sway.
Obama's victory is Iowa is more impressive since the process is heavily weighted to the Organization so it could indicate he has legs but we've seen other anti-Organization candidates get cut down before. On the other hand, Hillary's losing young women as well as men, so she has a problem.
Romney is toast, Wonder bread toast. This week it has been revealed that while governor, his appointees approved tax-exempt financing for actual abortion facilities which might send some of base elsewhere. My guess is that this nomination becomes a mean fight between a recovering McCain and a wounded Giuliani.
I don't think Romney is as wounded as you portray. But even if he is, he has the money to slog on for quite a while. McCain (who is my choice btw) is the one hurting. If he doesn't win NH, I think he is about done.
I still see a battle between Rudy and Mitt. Between the two, I'm not sure who is the stronger candidate. I think either could beat Hillary, but both will have trouble with Obama unless he makes some serious missteps.
As long as there's no clear front runner, there's no reason why anyone with the money can't keep playing in this short primary season.
I see Giuliani as the one in trouble. His strategy of sitting it out till some big states is a disaster--if someone does get established first, he's finished. Look at the national polls, he's not even first anymore, and he's been dropping for a while.
It looks to me like it will be Billary vs. RudyG. The democratic side has been over for months. Edwards' career flip-flops have proven to be too much for the public to take and if Obama starts to win too much, then white people will get out and vote in the later states for Her. Thompson has outside chance on Repube side, but will need to start campaigning...
may relocate to northern canada...
a concerned citizen
Hillary versus Rudy is the best we can get from this deal. If it's Obama versus Huckabee, then it's time to grab your wallet and run for the hills.
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