Saturday, January 19, 2008

Dick And John

Dick Morris adds his name to the list of pundits calling on Edwards to drop out. Morris believes it's all about "ego." In a very short column, he says over and over that Edwards can't win. ("He manifestly can no longer win..." "Edwards has fallen irreparably behind..." "The votes already cast and the polls of coming primaries all tell the same story: Edwards can't win." "...his chances for victory vanished." "...he has lost any realistic chance of winning....")

I have a question: what's it Morris's business? If Edwards, or anyone, wants to keep running, it's up to him. If the people don't like it, they can vote for someone else. (I'm on record as despising Edwards, but I'll admit he represents a certain constituency.)

So why is Morris doing this? It's pretty obvious. He desperately wants Hillary to lose (I'm not reading minds--he said so) and thinks Edwards hurts Obama.

Yet, even if this were true, it's far from clear that Edwards is guaranteed to lose. What's Morris's evidence beyond mantra-like repetition? National polling puts Clinton at 41 percent, Obama at 35 percent and Edwards at 15 percent.

So what? Popularity can, and will, change. If Clinton or Obama stumble, Edwards could be around to pick up the slack (assuming he doesn't take Morris's advice).

More important, look at the poll again--no one is near, much less above, 50%. If those polls don't change much, as Morris assumes, let's not forget Tsunami Tuesday will be here in a few weeks. The Democrats, in their wisdom, have no winner-take-all primaries. (In addition, about one-sixth of the delegates are superdelegates and thus not officially committed). A brokered convention is hardly out of the question if Edwards decides to stay in.

And what would that mean? If the fight between the Obama and Clinton forces gets ugly, Edwards could be seen as a compromise candidate. More likely, Edwards will be the convention's power broker (something he could be well before the convention, assuming he sticks around and picks up enough delegates). He can deliver his delegates to the highest bidder. We know he's been willing to run as a Veep, after all.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Edwards got less than 5% in Nevada. That should make him leave, but even if he doesn't, it shows he's not really a player anymore.

6:39 PM, January 20, 2008  

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