Polls Are Crap

Well I expected Hillary to pull closer and claim "comeback" and like I did in Iowa with Obama, underestimated the surge in support on the day of actual voting. At 7 pm last night, most pollsters (and apparently both campaigns) were preparing for a double digit Obama victory. Maybe it was the seeming interminable run-up and then the compression of activity to a small period of time and perhaps the wider availability of polling data and punditry which has led to large short term swings which have rendered polls very suspect and unreliable. Also these early results show how meaningless the concept of "momentum" is in any sort of race or contest. (I believe this is one of the other Guy's favorite bugbears, so I'll leave it to him to discuss it someday)

I think Hillary won because the Organization and Boomer Navel-gazers decided that their candidate just couldn't fall yet- much as happened with the promotion Kerry in '04 when they felt threatened by Howard Dean (not so much the candidate as the untethered uncontrollable support that had gathered around him). Clinton won with seniors and lifelong democrats while Obama cruised in the young and independent categories and the gender gap also reared its head. This is not a good split in terms of the party's ultimate chances-If these two go at it viciously (which we are beginning to see glimpses of), the Dems will suffer. I also think Obama let the rockstar/messiah symbolism go too far and pissed some people of. There is a theory that some of the the independents decide to go off and support McCain since he seemed to need it more (the headlines in NH on election day were "Obama on the way to winning and McCain-Romney in heated battle").

Still while NH resulted in immediate gains for Hillary and the Establishment, it might be showing widening fissures (Also, while I think she did get a cry bump- one woman I talked to,not a NH voter, said she looked like your typical mom who has been run ragged by an ungrateful family and no-win schedule and she felt for her- I can sort of see that but its not a repeatable type of appeal- one time is authentic, the second time is whining). Of course, if both these candidates "care so much" as they state, they would figure out a way to confound the experts and join forces now before the vituperation sets in. Don't think thats very likely for reasons best expressed in Monty Python's Life of Brian. (in case thats too obscure, there's a footnote below)*

McCain as expected rolled over the zombified Romney depite Romney's millions and geography who if he couldn't win in NH, can't win anywhere except Utah Mitts dead but apparently doesn't realize it yet- perfect quality for VP candidate?. (Romney wouldn't work as Giuliani's VP- apart from the geography, both are strong crisis managers and who both looked less than impressive as executives in normal routine administration. Still think this race will be Giuliani v. McCain down the stretch but we will get more Huckabee next week as the race moves south. Paul getting less than 10% in a state made for him takes some of the air out of his balloon (is this what FOX wanted?)

* Footnote The part where the People's Front for Judea cared more about defeating the Judean People's Front than fighting the Romans.