You Wanted Change, You Got It

Not liking the candidates much, for some time all I've been hoping for is an open convention. So I thank the voters of New Hampshire for keeping things alive.

McCain beat Romney (everyone else far back) by around 5% and, in the shocker of the night, Hillary took down Obama.

How did Hillary win after polling suggested a double digit victory for Barack? There are a number of theories.

1) A woman's tears: Hillary (almost) crying, not to mention being picked on by the boys, got her the last-minute sympathy vote.

2) Independent independents: The independent voters thought Obama's victory was a done deal, so they voted for McCain instead.

3) A race-based race: All the polls, even the exit polling, were off. Is this because, as we've discussed on Pajama Guy, whites got scared by the specter of a black man winning, or, perhaps more likely, they didn't like telling pollsters they're not voting for the black guy? Whatever happened, there's something wrong with the polls--perhaps the modeling, perhaps the people.

4) Good old Yankee perversity: New Englanders didn't like Iowa deciding who's the winner, and decided to teach them a lesson.

5) Good old organization: Say what you want about the Hillary, the Clinton people know how to get out the vote--it was pretty close and that made the difference.

Regardless, Hillary, who looked finished 24 hours ago, is now at least the co-front runner. Edwards is over, but since he vows (as of this writing) to stay till the end, and since Democratic primaries award delegates proportionally, an open convention is still possible. (By the way, Hillary's victory speech was horrible, but that's for another day.)

On the Republican side, this certainly keeps McCain alive, after he'd been written off not that long ago, but the people who are saying Romney is dead are nuts. Some are even saying it's between Huckabee and McCain, which is also nuts. (Can you win without New Hampshire? Sure you can, just ask Clinton and Bush.)

Huckabee has a solid core of support, especially from evangelicals, but a large portion of Republicans can't stomach him. As for McCain, there's hardly a subgroup within his party that he hasn't ticked off big with one or another of his "maverick" positions. McCain may get a lot of support from independents (who don't get to vote in most primaries), but you need your own party's backing to get the nomination.

Let's look at the numbers. First, Romney actually has the most delegates and is the only candidate who's demonstrated a solid base in every state that's voted so far. He also has all the money he needs to keep going.

But more important, there's simply no clear leader among the Republicans. If you took a national poll, you'd find McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani all bunched up with around 15% to 20% support. And Thompson and Paul pull in another 15% combined.

We've now got a while till the big votes--I don't think Michigan and South Carolina (even if all their delegates counted) will decide anything. The media can't crown anyone and I see little slingshot effect this time around--the season is shorter and the candidates all have their own base and their own problems. It's not until Florida late in January when you can gauge the Giuliani effect, and soon after Super Tuesday in February, when you'll really be able to see how things shake out. (And most states are proportional, not winner take all--though a few are, such as New York and New Jersey, and that may help Rudy.)

So nothing is settled. Good news for me.