Something To Stay Up For

Jay Leno leaves The Tonight Show May 29th next year, and Conan O'Brien takes over June 1st. The fun will start when Jay gets a new show, which is his for the asking. He's out at NBC and can't go to CBS, which leaves ABC (unless he wants to go the syndication route). I guess that means bye bye Nightline and see ya in a half hour, Jimmy.

Letterman's ratings haven't been great for a while. (And he does seem tired--I think his show has been going downhill since he decided to stop doing remotes himself.) Conan does okay for his time slot, but he doesn't even always beat Craig Ferguson. Jay, meanwhile, is the king of late night (though I admit I don't regularly watch). NBC wants to stay ahead of the curve, and keep the younger Conan happy, but getting rid of a huge hit sure seems like a bonehead play to most people.

Conan will probably move out to LA, where bigger stars are available, and use the Johnny Carson studio. Will that increase his appeal? Not much, I'd guess. The bigger question is will his show become less quirky and more mainstream. He'll be followed by Jimmy Fallon, which doesn't sound that enticing--like Letterman before him, I look forward to Conan at 12:30, and now that slot may become a wasteland.

Will viewers follow Jay to ABC? I don't see why not. He'd do the same show, and it's only a click away. Meanwhile, while there might be some initial interest in checking out Conan, it seems that his style would compete more with Letterman. If Leno does jump over, the big winner might end up being Jimmy Kimmel, who'd get a great lead-in.