Conventional Wisdom
Here are a few statements from the left on McCain's pick for Vice President. They were easy enough to find. There are hundreds like them.
It seems as though John McCain has once again followed in George W. Bush's footsteps, this time with a gaffe that will go down in history as one of the biggest election blunders our generation has seen.
McCain's stunning choice of the ex-beauty queen, evangelical half-term Alaskan Governor Sartah Palin [...] could be a major boon to the Obama-Biden ticket.
...it is a possible distraction to invoke some clever strategy that gets Palin out of the way, because they really don’t want her as VP (the GOP is too chauvinistic to take orders from a mere female), but it clears the way for McCain to bring in a real SOB as his VP...
...the more I learn about Palin, the better [Harriet] Miers looks.
It is believed in many circles that it was the success of Obama’s convention that was a factor that forced McCain’s hand in selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate; a decision that may prove disastrous.
Palin is this year’s Tom Eagleton.
Boy did the left chortle. There were pools about how soon she'd be gone. And to be fair, plenty on the right also called it a disaster. (So did noted centrist New England Guy.)
And now it turns out she's more popular than McCain or Obama. She arguably saved the day at the Republican convention.
We don't know how well she'll wear over the next two months, but for now, McCain couldn't have made a better political choice.
PS I can't pass up Marc Cooper's astonishing essay in the LA Weekly. It's amazingly dense and ugly at the same time. Best of all, it's one of those cases where a partisan tries to give friendly advice to the other side. Is anyone ever fooled by this gambit?
Read the whole thing, but let me give you a few bites for the overall feeling. Here's the first paragraph:
It might have been the waterlogged and vengeful ghost of Katrina, materialized in the form of Gustav, that came wisping into St. Paul, effectively shutting down the first night of the GOP's quadrennial multimillion-dollar propaganda show. But it's an uncontrollable Hurricane Sarah that threatens to blow the McCain campaign right into the deep, dark sea.
Here's the ending:
McCain's choice of Palin, then, demonstrates not only a ragged recklessness but is an affront to the entire electorate. Mister Serious, as McCain likes to portray himself, turns out to be a clownish and incompetent fool who thinks the American people are stupid enough to buy the gimmick he's come up with. I seriously doubt it. Indeed, I think it's time to buy right into that futures betting market, because I can't imagine Palin surviving into and through the scheduled October 2 debate with Joe Biden.
As for the GOP, they'd best take a few hours off from their partying to bone up on the history of the CPUSA. Blind obedience to ideology and unswerving loyalty to leaders turned the CP into little less than a holding tank for geriatrics and Stalinists. And then it quietly, completely unnoticed, disappeared into the darkest recesses of forgotten history.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:08 AM
9 Comments:
True, there's no way to know how things will go in the next two months but to say that her spectacular introduction has changed the dynamic of the race at this point is a huge understatement.
While the right should probably rein in its optimism a little, anyone who underestimates this woman is in for a nasty shock.
First, I'd suggest that there was a tradeoff made here. McCain wanted a big Friday surprise announcement to deflect attention away from Obama's speech. Mission accomplished. However, by sequestering her from the media since then, he's allowed (indeed, almost forced) the talking heads to create their own narratives. That's why you get preposterous statements about Alaska's National Guard bordering Russia constituting military/foreign policy experience, and equally preposterous claims that her daughter's pregnancy is in any way relevant.
I'd suggest both sides -- and the middle -- contain themselves until she actually takes her first questions from the press. Though the talking heads won't/can't do so, the rest of us can. I don't believe the campaign has yet set a date for that momentous occasion, presumably because they don't yet trust her to follow the script. There's lots of folks who can deliver a good, prepared speech. I believe we'll learn a lot more about her value to the campaign when she has to speak on her own.
You're judging Palin a success for delivering a rousing speech of prepared lines for the aleady or desperate to be convinced? Have not seen evidence of this choice exciting anyone ecept those who think McCain is too "Liberal" of "left" or some othe soviet-era terminology.
Trust me on this one- she may host a fantastic talk show some in the future, but Palin is an anchor this year- undercutting much of the effectiveness of McCain' (poorly delivered) speech. Best (only good) line to heckler- "ren' people tired of us shouting at other?"
Palin--my take
First of all let me note that LAGuy's remarks regarding how people were bowled over by the freshness of Obama fit with Palin as well. A big part of her draw is that she is a fresh face. Whether she (or Obama) will last is open for some debate, but likely both will be around for a good long time.
As for her 'delivering a rousing speech of prepared lines,' NEGuy is delusional. She did not solidify the base with that speech. That had already happened. The speech brought a whole bunch of people who were curious off the sidelines. Evidence for this is how many watched McCain.
How do I feel about her? I am curious not for the next interview but to see whether she will remove with her actions some of the encrusted cynicism that grows on any of us who contact politics. So far she appears very real. Actually not disimilar to my first impression of Obama. Of course part of our cynicism comes from the fact that NOONE can live up to the hype and secondly that NONE can withstand all the scrutiny. This is why though personality and character are important ( and LAGuy has not convinced me they aren't) the politician's ideas and proposed policies should be the main focal point of our decision making.
previous post
signed,
AAGuy
NEGuy says: You're judging Palin a success for delivering a rousing speech of prepared lines for the aleady or desperate to be convinced? Have not seen evidence of this choice exciting anyone ecept those who think McCain is too "Liberal" of "left" or some othe soviet-era terminology.
First, though I'm not judging her a success for the rousing speech alone, obviously the rousing speech alone does make her a roaring success. The people who opposed her didn't say "she'll be phenomenally successful the first couple weeks, charming most of America, changing the game, taking the air from Obama's heat, moving polls toward Mccain, outpolling the other candidates, solidifying and exciting the base, appealing to tens of millions who weren't interested in Republicans before...and then, people will tire of her." No, they said she was a complete disaster from square one, and everyone can see it, and this is the end of McCain--and then they started wondering when she'd be withdrawn.
Second, did you not bother to check the link? The polling shows she's more popular than McCain or Obama--that ain't just appealin' to the base.
Third, she can be a complete idiot (though she obviously isn't) and I doubt it'll make that much difference--in the scheme of things, Veeps don't matter that much. Lots of people mocked Agnew and Quayle, and respected Muskie and Mondale, but who won?
Fourth, if all she does is excite the base, that will be more than enough.
Fifth, from what she's done so far, she seems poised to do well in the near future--it's not like it's so hard to handle the press (especially when you can turn harsh attacks against them) or one debate. The main trick might be making sure expectations are low enough.
SIxth, you'll note I said we've yet to see how well she'll wear, but by any rational, disinterested measure, politically speaking, she's been a home run.
(Yes, I'm aware Mondale won once.)
(And Quayle lost once. But you get the point.)
My take, for what it's worth: McCain met Palin in Feb and came away impressed. Whether he knew anything about her before then, I don't know but she definitely struck some sort of chord in him.
As the VP potentials were looked at, Palin's name kept coming up. In comparing her with the expected choices (Romney, Lieberman, Pawlenty etc.) she had a number of positives: being female (of course!), being staunchly conservative, being pro-life, for (appearing, at least) to have strong convictions about how government should be run, having some street cred for taking the republican establishment in AK - something I think appealed to McCain greatly - and, perhaps not least, being completely unexpected.
I think Team Obama was licking its chops, waiting for one of the expected "boys" to be chosen so they could use primary footage against him (Romney) or call him a traitor (Lieberman). In any case, I think that's one reason why Biden was chosen: to play the team Pit Bull and savage the McCain choice.
So McCain chooses (brilliantly or foolishly; perhaps both) Palin. Everyone is caught off-guard. Team Obama's first reaction is to lash out and the nutroots (and a few respectable pundits who should know better) go crazy, dredging up some of the worst lies and innuendo ever thrown about in an election. Even the Republicans are dumbfounded, wondering who the hell this woman is and why is she our choice for VP.
Middle America, most of whom are asking themselves the same question, reacts to all the negative press and finds itself - without knowing anything about her - predisposed to like her. Then Palin goes on TV and she absolutely kills in her acceptance speech and suddenly people are in love.
Now, Palin is still the fresh-faced newby, whereas Obama has been in the news for almost 2 years. And he's starting to repeat himself (anyone catch his latest attempt to play the race card?). And what's worse, he feels compelled to answer charges made by the Republican nominee for VP. Has he forgotten who he's running against?
Again, time will tell if Palin will hold up to scrutiny. My feeling is that if she shows she can handle the Q&A sessions with the public and the press (Obama and Biden have shown they cannot; force these guys to speak extemporaneously and they are a comedy team) and if she undresses Biden publicly in the debate (as I think she will), then Team Obama is in BIG trouble.
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