Summer Box Office Review

The summer films are just about played out, so I figured it's time to look back at the predictions I made. On the whole, beyond obvious choices, I wasn't too prescient:

Iron Man is already a blockbuster, and I assume it'll have legs. I'd guess it'll make over $300 million (all figures domestic) and be the #1 or #2 film of the year.

Looks like I was right. Iron Man made almost 320 million (as stated above, all figures will be domestic, unless otherwise noted) and finished second for the summer (though not to the film I thought would be first) and will in all likelihood be #2 for the year. Not that brave a guess, though.

Speed Racer, opening next week, will be a disappointment. Neither fish nor fowl, I'd guess it'll have trouble beating Iron Man's second weekend.

Speed Racer was one of the biggest flops of the year, making about less than 45 million, and less than 90 million worldwide.

The last Narnia film was a surprise blockbuster. It was expected to do well, but it almost performed at Harry Potter or Lord Of The Rings level. Those films had (and will have) sequels that keep bringing them in, and while I expect the latest tale of Narnia, Prince Caspian, to do well, I still expect a big drop since its story isn't that closely related to the first. It has a shot at the lower rung of the top five.

If anything I was too kind. It made about 140 million (a bit over 400 worldwide--there'll be a sequel), less than half of the original, and was nowhere near the top five.

Next, Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull. Has time passed Indy by? Looking at the Star Wars sequels, I'd say no. It'll do well, and unless it really sucks, I would expect it to be in the top two or three of the summer.

It did suck, but it still finished third, just a couple million behind Iron Man (and far ahead internationally). I'm surprised it wasn't first or second, though that's what happens when you have two other blockbusters in the same season.

Sex And The City: The Movie. Hmm. TV to film (with the same cast) is always tricky, and the estrogen factor limits the audience. I think it'll have trouble making $100 million.

Boy was I wrong. I underestimated the estrogen factor (not the only time this summer). SATC became the biggest straight comedy of the summer, making over 152 million and was even huger overseas, ending up with about 400 million overall. This means they'll make another one I'll have to avoid.

Kung Fu Panda. Looks like fun, though even with fine voice work, it's the story that counts. I see it doing okay, but I don't think it'll be huge.

It was huge. Pixar huge. Over 200 million domestic, almost 600 million worldwide.

You Don't Mess With Zohan. Adam Sandler is pretty reliable--except for an occasional turkey, his comedies always break the $100 million mark. This one will too, though it won't get anywhere near $200 million.

The counting isn't exactly over, but it looks like it finished just a few hundred thousand short of 100 million. A disappointment, especially considering the cost. It shows Adam Sandler should stick to playing Americans.

The Happening. Certainly one of the question marks of the summer. M. Night Shyamalan had his first disaster, since he hit it big, with Lady In The Water. The Happening seems to be a return to form--or at least at attempt at it. I think it'll at least get back some of his crowd, and gross more than The Village and less then Signs.

I think I meant to say more than Lady In The Water, not The Village. Anyway, it was wrong as written. The Village easily made more than 100 million, while The Happening stopped short and committed suicide at around 65 million, 160 million worldwide. Sort of a return to form, but not really good enough.

The Incredible Hulk. I don't think, after the last one flopped, that the audience is ready for a new Hulk. It'll perform below expectations.

I think I called this one right. No flop, but its 134 million is about the same as the last disappointing Hulk.

Get Smart. This is a film the audience wants to like, but won't deliver. A decent opening with no legs.

I think I was wrong. Perhaps not a blockbuster, but with a 128 million, I'd call it a hit.

The Love Guru. Mike Myers wants to create a new character. It'll develop a cult--look at the name--but with the same sort of gags he always has, it'll do okay but come nowhere near the numbers he gets with Austin Powers.

One of the summer's bigger disappointment. It was critically despised and it only grossed 32 million. Back to Austin.

Wall-E. I'd be a fool to go against Pixar. It'll be in the Top Five, and do better than Cars.

Cars made 244 million. Wall-E made around 220 million. It did finish fifth, though.

Wanted. Another question mark. Angelina Jolie has scored in action before, and James McAvoy is an up and comer, but with all the familiar names playing elsewhere, they might have trouble breaking through. Still, I think it'll do alright--over $100 million, under $200 million.

One for me. Made 134 million.

Hancock. Maybe the biggest question mark of the summer. Will Smith is the most reliable moneymaker in movies right now, but will people buy him in a superhero comedy? If it flies, it'll be huge, but I see it having some trouble taking off. Still, I can't see him doing less than $100 million, but I wouldn't expect more than $200 million.

Never bet against Will Smith. Even with mixed reviews, the Smith vehicle grossed over 225 million domestic, and over 565 worldwide.

The Wackness. Actually, no one is expecting this to be a major release. I just chose one of many smaller films to note that every summer something seems to come out of nowhere and hit it big. Could be this one as easily as any other.

The Wackness didn't even make 2 million, and there actually wasn't any film that came out of nowhere this summer. Though perhaps I should note Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which is already over 13 million in the middle of its run, may make some decent coin (by Woody standards, not, say, by House Bunny standards).

Hellboy II. Was anyone really that excited by Hellboy I? A major director and a built-in name, but expect it to fade fast.

Opened big then took a nosedive. Ended at a disappointing 75 million.

The Dark Knight. People are waiting for this one. And Heath Ledger only makes it bigger. It'll make over $200 million and be in the top five. (I haven't given out more than five in the top five yet, have I?)

I guess I was right, but I sure didn't predict what a phenomenon this'd be. Easily the biggest hit of the year, grossing over 500 million, over 900 worldwide.

Meet Dave. The latest Eddie Murphy comedy. He has his audience, but it's not as big as it used to be. The concept is weird, but let's say it ends up somewhere around $100 million.

Way off. Probably the flop of the summer, didn't even gross 12 million.

Mamma Mia! This may play well as a live show, or in Europe, but do Americans really want to see something scored by Abba? Not a major hit.

Who knew? The Sex And The City crowd came out in force again. It's grossed over 130 million (and still counting) and, as expected, did much bigger overseas, with worldwide numbers at well over 360 million.

Step Brothers. People are Will Ferrelled out. Will not make $100 million.

I think I got this one wrong. It's still a bit short of 100 million, but has a good shot, and showed the audience is still ready to buy Ferrell in a wild comedy.

X-Files 2. Is this the 1990s? Will get the fans on the first weekend and then die.

Hardly even got the fans. Made about 21 million.

The Mummy 3. Another sequel people don't need to see. It'll pass $100 million, but its glory days are over.

Will just barely pass 100 million. In fact, Journey To The Center Of The Earth, also starring Brendan Fraser but costing less than half as much, has made about the same amount (though The Mummy did considerably better overseas).

Pineapple Express. Sounds ridiculous, but it's hard to bet against the combination of Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen. It shouldn't have much trouble making over $100 million.

It opened great, but once the audience saw all that violence, it dropped off quickly. Should make close to 90 million, but not 100.

Tropic Thunder. A different sort of comedy with Ben Stiller. Definitely a question mark. Is it too little too late? Only a couple weeks left in the summer--maybe its best chance is everything else will be played out. But since Stiller's not playing the lovable loser, I'm not sure the audience will go for it. On the other hand, it's not only got Stiller, but Jack Black and the newest big star, Robery Downey Jr. I'd say it's got a 50/50 shot at breaking $100 million. (There's a worthless prediction.)

Actually, a pretty good prediction, since it looks like it should pass 100 million, but not by much. The film isn't a flop, but isn't the blockbuster they were hoping for.

Bangkok Dangerous. Another Nicolas Cage action film. I don't think anyone is too excited--will have trouble reaching $100 million. Babylon A.D. They're releasing this Vin Diesel sci-fi flick at the butt end of summer. I don't see it doing too well.

Babylon has crashed and burned. Bangkok isn't really a summer film, so let's forget about it.

Okay, I'm on record. Let's see how it works out.

Only so-so.