The Landslide Brought Me Down
I hear some in the Obama camp are expecting a "landslide." I suppose this all depends on what you think a landslide is.
With recent elections so close, it may seem like Bill Clinton enjoyed a landslide against Bob "Bob Dole" Dole in 1996. He won by less than 9 percentage points and took the Electoral College 379-159. Pretty paltry landslide, seems to me.
Now 1984 (18%+, 525-13), 1972 (23+, 520-17), 1964 (22%+, 486-52)--those were landslides.
My threshhold for a landslide is 1980 (9.7%, 489-49). For the next few years there were heated editorials from the left claiming Reagan did not win by a landslide. I think you gotta get at least those kind of numbers to make the claim.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:18 AM
4 Comments:
There will be no landslide, I think its safe to say (barring some new weirdness in the next month)- If the bailout passes and falls from the news, some other issue will fill the void (if it weren't for Wall Street distress right now, I have the feeling a lot of the news readers intoning about "Deadly Chinese milk" and the candidates would be earnestly debating trade policy and China).
I think Obama will prevail by about 5-7% in the popular vote. On the expectations game, Dems will hail a decisive victory because its more than the neck and neck race that was expected a few weeks ago, Repubs will claim a tightening margin from now to then evidences a growing wariness about Obama.
Political Scientists will experience a publishing growth industry as they debate whether Palin helped or hurt McCain.
Prediction: Hurt.
John or William?
I think your threshhold for a landslide (1980) sounds right to me. I recall 1988 and 1996 both being called landslides... but only by the partisans of the victors. But as you point out, if these can be called "landslides" then we need a NEW word for 1936, 1964, 1972, and 1984.
After 1936, someone quipped "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont."
Of course, the threshhold for partisans to claim victory is much lower! After the 1994 GOP victory, one of my liberal friends insisted for at least five years that it hadn't been a Republican victory; it was an "anti-incumbent victory". Even though zero Republican incumbents lost their congressional races.
Still, I think the red/blue polarization isn't going away, so I would tentatively bet that Obama won't carry more than the states currently credited to him plus the states currently "in play". That's a decisive electoral majority, but not a landslide.
sad.
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