No Surprise
A lot of people are wating for an October Surprise that'll change the election. I think we just had it. I'd estimate the economic meltdown and subsequent fight to pass an emergency package played to the Democrats' strengths and put Obama solidly in the lead.
The timing couldn't have been better if they planned it. Democrats across the board are still taking advantage of the situation as they claim our financial problems were caused by Republican deregulation. As I've stated before, the argument is a pretty bad one, but that doesn't matter. Politics is as much about being in the right place at the right time as anything else, and the more the focus is on the economy, the better the Democrats will do.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:14 AM
4 Comments:
1) It happened in September
2) It was no surprise
When McCain started running, our #1 issue was the war and he was clearly better on military matters in the debate. Since the financial meltdown, have you heard or overheard any conversations about the war?
In Michigan, the McCain campaign's withdrawal from here was barely noticed by the local media, which was more interested in commenting on the loss of advertising revenue and jobs for the state. Obama has won Michigan.
It may have started in September, but it's spilled over in October.
Yes, it was a surprise.
It would take another surprise of enormous magnitude to shift the election back to McCain at this point. The only even remotely likely thing I can think of would be a terrorist attack in the US before election day, and that might cut both ways, depending on whether the attack was seen as something the Bush administration could or should have prevented.
Unimaginable surprises would include:
proof that Obama was secretly a Muslim (not that that should matter, but it would),
proof of infedelity by Obama,
evidence of Obama speaking disparagingly of hispanics or asians or jews, perhaps in a conversation with Jeremiah Wright,
evidence of Obama taking bomb-making lessons from Bill Ayres.
Otherwise, I think it's Obama's win in November.
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