Experts

Recently heard two different "experts" on radio giving their opinions on Somali pirates and bad economics times.

The first expert said the rescue of Captain Richard Phillips won't deter the pirates. He said only a greater naval presence would do that. After all, you buy lottery tickets and lose regularly but aren't deterred, so the pirates, who have nothing, will keep trying, hoping to hit the lottery.

I don't think much of this analogy. He's certainly right that the pirates will continue with their activities. But I have to believe killing a bunch of them has to have some effect. When you don't hit the lottery, you lose a few bucks, not your life. The pirates want to hold people for ransom, which shows that they also plan to continue living. So as poor as they may be, they still have one thing of great value to them--their lives.

(The pirates have vowed revenge, of course. Yes, how dare we free their prisoner without paying them first. Don't we understand it's just a business transactions? Here's what a pirate named Hussein told Reuters: "The French and the Americans will regret starting this killing. We do not kill, but take only ransom. We shall do something to anyone we see as French or American from now." Now I know it's silly to try to argue with someone so nasty and stupid, but Hussein, honestly, think what you're saying. Are you claiming if you demand a ransom and we refuse to pay because you "do not kill" that you'll either let the kidnaped go or put them up for the rest of their lives? The whole point is you're threatening them, so stop lying to yourself.)

The other expert said, looking at unemployment figures, if this isn't a depression he'd like to know what is.

As bad as things may be, they were far worse in the Great Depression. Unemployment was three times higher, in fact, so we've got a ways to go. In fact, we haven't yet hit double digit unemployment (and let's hope we don't), which happened in 1982.

What's defines "depression" I don't exactly know. (I've written about the definition of "landslide" already.) But how about this--until you have double digit unemployment and an economy slopping downward for at least two years, let's just agree to call it a recession.