Congressional Wisdom
There's a lot to say about last night's elections, though how much effect they'll have it's hard to say. To whatever extent the results (good for Republicans, if mixed) mean anything, it's mostly that they make tangible what's been obvious in polls for a while.
What interests me more is I can see two ways Congress--especially the blue dogs--will react. Conventional wisdom has it they'll sit down and say "gee, why is it we're trying to force through massive legislation that the public hates?" But I wonder if it couldn't go in the other direction? Such as "might not be pretty in 2010--might as well pass everything we can before then."
posted by LAGuy @ 12:20 AM
7 Comments:
In fact, from what I've read, Bill Owens, the Democrat who the NY 23 House Seat, is fairly conservative and will join the Blue Dog caucus, if he has any hope of retaining the seat next year. He won with less than 50% of the vote (the Conservative and the last minute withdrawn Republican taking over 50% together), so he has a lot of work to do.
Butthe details of Health Reform are so murky, and their impact so postposned (2013, I think) that the Democrats may stick to their guns, figuring it won't impact them in 2010 or 2012 (especially if the economy has recovered by then).
The political impact of the Health Care vote will be immediate. It's the bill with the highest profile, and passing it will be giving the middle finger to the majority of Americans who don't want it. It's rare--perhaps unique--to pass a massive, gamechanging bill without general and bipartisan support from the public.
Bill Owens won a seat not held by Dems in 120+ years after the Reps cleared the decks and the Palin faction candidate ran.
Seems to me this election expresses annoyance with anyone in power
Owens wasn't running against an incumbent. It was a weird race where the Republican gave up and threw her support to the Democrat. (Denver Guy is correct that Owens is a fairly conservative Dem, just as Scozzafava was a fairly liberal Republican.) I think it was more about beating the carpetbagger supported by outsiders. No one likes being told how to vote. In any case, the winner got less than half the vote, and less than the combined votes of the Conservative and the Republican.
Scozzafava was more liberal than Owens. She supports abortion, card check and the health care plan. Owens gets a top rating from the NRA.
The 23rd district was open because Obama named the guy serving there to a position. Then a handful of local Republicans nominated a liberal to run for the spot, thus causing this mess. Even then, if Hoffman had actually lived in the district, maybe he could have won.
As a historical oddity, it's cute that we still have a few liberal New England and New York Republicans. But I don't see any practical value in it.
If you want to be truly local, then the parties in NY-23 should be the Pro-Turnpike Party and the More Snowplows Party. Using the word "Republican" to mean "what the Republicans in Upstate New York Stood For in 1904" is simply poor communication -- just as if I decided to speak all my sentences using obsolete meanings of words.
(On the other hand, an honest moderate who is halfway between the two parties has to pick one... for now. I think a Center Party would be a great idea, though. I'm not a centrist, but a lot of folks are, and it's silly that they aren't represented.)
"I think a Center Party would be a great idea, though. I'm not a centrist, but a lot of folks are, and it's silly that they aren't represented."
We don't need a Center Party, we need a Silly Party.
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